i'm long to the teeth. it's free money and one can't lose period. i dare the market to turn on me and lose me one cent. when the crowds this bullish its a 100% winning combo and i'll take all the cash i can. i think you could nuke nyc and we'd sky. there's money everywere.
One other thing, CNBC is always a contrarian sign in my opinion. They are always most late with their calls. Why were they not telling you to buy in June of 2006? Now they are telling you to buy when you should probably be taking profits. I remember every bad situation they have put myself in and I closely watch what they tell me. If they go into small caps, then you should look into large caps. If they say its time to bail out energy, then I bail out of the airlines. If they say its time to buy the airlines, then I start looking at energy. If they tell me to buy energy, then I buy the airlines. There were these days in 2001 that I remember well when they were cheerleading as the market came all the way down. They were portraying gloom and doom in 2004, but that was a time to buy. I could come up with a long list of events as to why CNBC is a good contrarian indicator.
hangingman you could have said the same crap in sept ,oct , nov or dec. people were going wild in oct and if you bought puts then you're wiped out. one day it shall correct wicked but picking that day has broke a ton of shorts. bottom line bulls rule now end of story
I'm with EqtTrdr, it is highly unlikely we will ever have a down day in the major indexes again. Going into earnings season with individual stocks is pure gambling! If you have single stocks just hedge your portfolio with ES futures. Your stocks might dissapoint earnings and get hit, but if you are long index futures then you hedged your stock exposure.
Im just telling you what my opinion is of next week based upon technical analysis of the current market. As for Sept, Oct, Nov, Dec, anyone who knows anything about technical analysis could have told you that that those were not good times to be short. The bullish percent indicators, lower trending $TNX, lower trending $WTIC, put call ratios, the fact that the entire chart was moving above the moving average, etc etc etc. In fact, during those times you have indicated, no money manager worth his salt was shorting. Let me address the short interest that you talk about...If I am a money manager handling millions of dollars in positions, Im going to buy puts as a hedge. Its my duty to protect the investors and I would do that through puts. Actually, all investors should cover their long positions in this manner and it was very common to do this through walk-in brokers when the online brokers were not around. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$CPC&p=D&b=3&g=0&id=p14214565368 Now follow the blue line, the blue line topped out in June and has slowly come down. The blue line is at exactly the same place as it was in May before the summer correction. "Puts" do not come from thin air. There is an underwriter on the deal who holds a corresponding position or other collateral to backup the puts. When you click on "key statistics" on yahoo and go down to "short interest", that short interest may not be from someone actually shorting the stock, but may originate from the underwriter. All of these puts need to be covered at some point. Since there is now a lack of puts in the marketplace, the market will have to climb higher based upon retail interest in the market. As a money manager, I would not enter the market at a time when I feel there is a top. I dont believe the retail interest will be able to take this market much higher. I will be entering the market long when the BPI is at around 30% and buying those shares from you.