So what do you do when...

Discussion in 'Trading' started by pismo10, May 15, 2008.

  1. pismo10


    The e-mini methodology you have been using fairly well for two years doesn't work at all anymore. I feel like a total rookie, nothing makes sense the last few months.

    Thoughts appreciated.
  2. lindq


    The first and obvious thought is that your strategy isn't suited to a higher volatility environment. Although, most strategies tend to operate better in higher volatility. Mine do. So I'd be interested to know what you have that works in low volatility:p
  3. you have to understand that most strategies correspond to certain market conditions. by strategies i mean systems that rely on a fixed set of rules.

    however, the only "strategies" that never go out of order are the simple ones based on price alone (reversals at S/R, buying retracements into new highs/lows, etc)

    the more indicators, the more specific the strategy gets and the higher chance that the strategy will fail when slight market characteristics begin to change.

    and that is all because most indicators are linear and meant to produce a result bar to bar, while the human eye and brain are more capable of analyzing and judging than formulas.
  4. however, i can give you a practical advice. If your strategy worked better in a low volatility env, try using it on a much lower timeframe than you would normally use it.

    when volatility is higher, the markets are usually more cranky and the action "speeds up". It's then that you need to speed up too.
  5. That is as good as it gets in my opinion alex.

  6. pismo10


    Thanks for the ideas. I use simple stuff, looking for turns off old highs/lows, small targets, small stops, was pulling about 75% wins until recently. Now no correlation. Small stops getting hit more now. More importantly, signals just don't seem to mean anything now when they used to be fairly reliable.
  7. pismo10


    4 losers in a row this morning...Tough business. I wonder how many doctors go to work one morning and every tool they use accomplishes the exact opposite.
  8. you need to keep a detailed diary.
  9. I'm struggling with proven strategies too.

    Any ideas on what the psychology is behind the market?
    Was it that SEC ruling on assists that's fueling this rally?