How exactly do you envision that happened? Obama told his economic advisors, the advisors told everyone at the BLS/BEA? Don't you think it would leak to the press? With millions of educated people, who have access to raw data via Freedom of Information Act, don't you think someone would show that they are full of shit (someone real, not some dude in his basement)? The reality has a liberal bias. It's a well-known fact. (a) Rather, "liberals" have a reality bias. Look at who is pro-science, pro-evidence and who is not. It actually makes perfect sense, considering that the "left" is educated, urban and non-religious and the right is (mostly) the opposite. Peasants have been duped for centuries. (b) The definition of "liberal" and "conservative" has changed. When I came to this country in the 80s, I identified myself as a socially libertarian and financially conservative. Liberals in my book were idealistic dreamers that want all sorts of impossible shit. A perfect fit for the GOP. If anything, those view have strengthened over the years, but the GOP of the 2016 is not the GOP 1990. The party has left myself and many other people behind (*). (c) The fact that one rejects scientific theories/models without being a specialist in any of the sciences (in fact, probably without any tangible higher education) does not make one a "libertarian" or a "conservative". The fact that one believes in all sorts of conspiracy theories does not make one "skeptical". It makes one an uneducated idiot. That applies to both sides of the political spectrum, from anti-vaccine people on the far right to anti-GMO people on the far left. (*) I recently heard an interview with Bruce Bartlett, a former policy advisor to Reagan and Bush Sr. He expressed both (a) and (b) far more eloquently, but the general idea is the same.
Progressives....never learn..always striving...the left for all their education are dipsticks...ever learning and never coming to the knowledge of the truth. Spinners of crumb bag failing theories...thumb sucking snowflakes...stuck in a loser paradigm they are...self deceived.. never able to escape the deception...wreckers of society...destroyers of wealth...and oh whinners.... no need to continue..that is enough...ROFLMAO
ET is like a moshpit of quicksand...it sucks you down to depths. No good can come of it. It's like one of those dark medieval paintings...of everyone screaming and looking theatrical and down on their luck. Elite by loose definition means less than 1% of everyone here are successful, while the rest are wasting their life away in pursuit of a fruitless endeavor, but of course...I don't expect anyone to openly admit that out of pride and shame. But this is 2018 ...let's Make Trading Great Again ...just like 1998 and 2008,
The average annual temperature in Montreal is 63 degrees excluding days in January, February, April, if March experiences a proprietary driven calculus of sunshine hours per day. The formula is data driven and subject to change by the committee without prior notice and historically , over decades , has indeed been altered significantly to account for the effects of climate change. Prove me right or wrong. I also prefer to analyze GDP considering M3.
Without getting into a shouting match, I am curious. 1. How do you mentally reconcile the idea of “money used for transactions” with the illiquid nature of M3 (given the definition and inputs)? 2. What do you do for countries with unavailable m3 data series? With regards to the government data sources and the “skepticism” that seem to accompany it in certain circles. While it’s easy to point out “oh, but the definition is so complicated”, it’s transparent and if someone mainstream disagrees with it, we hear about it. For example, mainstream economists have raised doubts about some of the Chinese data a few years ago. Is the data ideal? By no means. But it’s data and, at least for the US, you can go to the very original dataset.
Wouldnt shout . Respect to the real deals on this site. My M3 comment was tongue in cheek . This must have been a difficult number to keep track of. I am honestly impressed with recent GDP trends , expect higher numbers, but will closely watch all vortexes, polar and otherwise. I dont care what or how any of these numbers are derived. I see headline numbers and look for asset price reactions. To dismiss these numebers or say they dont matter anymore is unwise IMO. Who am I to know the weight the market factors significant economic numbers.
Risk ? What was that ? It wasn't trading just flat out gambling blindly off the herd mentality. Between March and April of 2000 the easy money bull ride was over and I learned to short. I also learned that some of the most violent short squeezes happen in bear markets especially when the fed was toying with emergency cuts. The problem with a runaway bull is 90% of the people are blinded by the greed and become so conditioned to trading long that when the bear starts they give it all back.
Me? I am just a dude that got a lucky break once and managed to ride it until now. On the topic, somehow I mainly remember the crisis of 1998 very vividly. Fun times that was, especially if you traded fixed income.
Tell us about that. Amateur stock jocks saw a serious summertime dip with a viscous rebound after a retest of the bottom. It's possible, as I remember it now, as a 20% single week rebound in QQQQ. They say this crisis was a big event for institutions. Asian contagion, Thai Bhat crisis or other label.....Must have been some monster action in government bonds globally. Jeez, I remember saying here that the fed tightening bias, USD shortage may lead to similar event in EM debt, currency and equity markets. Clearly , less thinking would do me some good.