Here you go, these are QoQ numbers from the official US government source. I have no idea who "other sources" are. Well, people who spoon-feed others bullshit (no matter what side they are on) are not to be believed. That's the beauty of scientific approach - the data does not care if you are republican or a democrat. US markets had a good run in the last 8-9 years, it's a fact. Nominal GDP growth has been reasonable, that's also a fact. Productivity growth has been OK, that's also a fact. Wage growth has been sluggish, that's also a fact. How you attribute these results is your own business (personally, I think that the political establishment has very little influence on the economic performance), but these numbers are the economic reality. I don't have an axe to grind with respect to either Obama or Trump, I just find it appealing how we seem to stumble onto "alternative facts" with respect to everything.
The late 90's last leg of the bull market was of a much larger velocity -trend line going to the sun. On most days many of the high-tech & biotech stocks were up 10%. And nobody was trading the S&P500 (ES/SPY). The real big $ was made in IPO's on the dot.com stocks - first day was typically up over 100% and you had a lot more IPO's back than. We are in the most hated bull market in history. The late 90's was a loved bull market - everywhere you went you heard people talking about their favorite stocks. People were splurging like crazy - $ was no object for those in the market. A lot of young people were millionaires from only about 5 years at their job via the stock options. This bull is lifting mostly the Gen-X group but still lacks in broad participation.
I've been looking for years now for the typical signs of irrational behavior. Maybe because the investing is mostly done by proxy, it's harder for the public to get too excited. They will get their 401k and mutual fund statements for last year soon. Then we'll see. Also, pros have encouraged herd like behavior, saying that people should be invested in stocks vs bonds according to their age, stocks being "risky". Some famous investor/trader once said that the market doesn't care how old you are. So mostly the "pros" are risk averse, perhaps rightly so most of the time. I'm not turning bearish until I see pictures of bulls on the cover of magazines at the checkout counter.
I do see the beginnings of hysteria in Bitcoin. It's similar to the dot.com bubble. I try to tell myself that that bubble ran for years, and every day you had people warning of the danger but their voice was drowned out by the party goers. Same with the housing bubble. Really you need to see ordinarily conservative people throw in the towel and say, "You know what? Maybe they are right. This thing is for real." I remember the gloom that persisted for years in the 90s. The most popular color then was black. I believe that the pessimism fueled the markets, still does.
Hah! Go look at my journal and see the entries from Dec 18th. They do decline for sure. How long they maintain the decline is another story. As has been seen, it took these past 4 trading days to not only reverse the previous 2-week-long decline, but then go positive by the same amount of the decline!
No. Trading seemed hard, dangerous in fact, back then, As it does (and should) today. Market conditions should not affect you or your strategy. Find something that works and execute it.
I have never seen equities go anywhere but up. Only some delusional old people remember those silly things called "the bear markets".
Man's progress is ever-upwards, in fit and spits, furts and spurts. At least it's been that way since the watering hole scene in Kubrick's 2001. Equity prices reflect this. Humanity itself is a bubble. Bear markets are buying opportunities. Never go short. If for no other reason, the long side is bounded at zero.
As awe-inspiring as that 500 year market civilization chart may be, it's a relatively meaningless atomized dust spectacle...within the greater framework of the history of man which is 200,000 years old...and an even less significant element when compared with the planet's 5.6 billion year history of continual development -- and an even much smaller and less significant element within the greater Universe. Humans are just (maybe) temporary monkeys or mice ...scurrying around daily amongst their quick and short lives and existences. There has to be a market lesson in here somewhere...so I guess perception or perspective matters -- Whether you're looking at a daily chart, or yearly. All of the market's collective variables mold and shape it. If you could in real-time...infuse, and sense...its hindsight presence, Star traders from the 20's, 30's....80's, 90's..in their given, unique environments...seems like just yesterday -- and not as grand anymore -- and even replicable,