Pouring over all the recent economic data, there is no doubt in my mind that we have started the second and final wave into the lost decade much like that of Japan. Zero job growth? Not since 1945. ISM, number is contracting fast. Fed's...OUTA credibility and zero confidence vote among the smart money. Sheeople, watching their 101ks slowly head for the cliff and soon to find their investments near Down 9000 and their brokers screaming buying opportunity. Buy and hold for 40 years.... Good Luck with that. JAPAN had a manufacturing base, yet it took them 20 years to try and dig out of their Assets Bubbles and their Over Leveraged Economy. The US has nothing. 70% consumer base that will shrink to half that in a few years. Great Works Projects coming to the table will employee few and have zero effect on GDP. The Liberals and Socialist have the perfect play to add more government and soon, the people will be crying out loud for Socialism and Mother FED to take care of them. The writing is on the wall and those who still can not see the words, will be left in the "Bread" lines at Walmart with their Food Stamp Debit card. Energy, natural gas and the conversion of the infrastructure to start the transition for the Power Grid would be a wise idea. The Crack Spread is screaming Oil crash. Johnny Cubical and Mary Call center will find them selves working less hours for less money as CEO's cut back on "Hours" and Pay. That is the next step. True unemployment is near 23% (Do your own research on this number) I doubt we will reach higher than 25%. However, wages, salaries and hours will be cut...that is the next phase. 99ers....well they are beyond fucked. Will continue to be jobless in most of the states where they live. With that said, the states that have stronger job growth that of the East and West Coast will start a boom cycle. Yes, Texas for example is feeling some of the nations pain. However, it's far from being pushed into the Abyss as NY, IL, MO, NC, FL, CA and countless other East and West Coast States. The Stock Markets, not worth the electronic numbers printed every second. Any fool knows this, yet the still buy buy buy. Hard Assets, inflated in some arenas...but fare far better than the US STOCK MARKET. Traders, daytraders in general, getting wiped out daily in 1000s. Bucket Shops closing every day. The economy is at a cross roads. No one, no one single person can really say where the US economy is going for sure. Japan's model is one the US mimics most. The old school idea of "Investing" in typical US companies is over. There is a world bigger than America. Plenty of money being made outside the US. Wealth will always make money. Poor, shall always stay poor for the most part. The Middle Class....in a free fall for the most part in the US. Read the stories and the history of the Implosion of Venezuela and now Greece. Forget the main stream talk of ROME. Rome was not like the US yet, Greece and Venezuela are very close to the US. Massive Debt, people who voted for Bigger Gov and socialism. Free markets destroyed. So, the odds are pointing towards the US collapse falling in the same order as Venezuela, Greece and Japan. Theses are the models of collapse that we know to be the most current. We can also throw in the Russian Currency crises that the dollar could possible follow as well. So, be aware, make your money and do not be surprised when the word DEPRESSION finally is plastered across main stream headlines.
It is definitely a depression. I will claim that now so that when people dispute it I have evidence of it.
The Business Cycle Dating Committee at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) provides a better way to find out if there is a recession is taking place. This committee determines the amount of business activity in the economy by looking at things like employment, industrial production, real income and wholesale-retail sales. They define a recession as the time when business activity has reached its peak and starts to fall until the time when business activity bottoms out. When the business activity starts to rise again it is called an expansionary period. By this definition, the average recession lasts about a year. how can we tell the difference between a recession and a depression? A good rule of thumb for determining the difference between a recession and a depression is to look at the changes in GNP. A depression is any economic downturn where real GDP declines by more than 10 percent. A recession is an economic downturn that is less severe.
Well said EMR. Now prepare to be bashed by tht ET "gurus" who disagree. Most people don't want to hear, or face the uncomfortable truth.
"lost decade" the japanese have a strong currency and nobody is buying them on the cheap. can the US say the same?
The anti-gold assclowns and Bernanke apologists have all become silent. As usual, the minority gets it right, even if they were early.
I have been trying to tell people to buy gold and silver for a while. They are all complacent they will get their money. It is one of those things where I want to be wrong. You have to accept things and stop living in denial at one point. It is like a drug addict they have to admit they have a problem to solve it. If they don't they will die. It is just a matter of time.
My neighbor took my advice and bought gold and silver... his portfolio doubled and he now considers me god...(moral to the story...do not recommend anything to your family or neighbors). unfortunatley he and his wife have terminal illnesses and moved to Florida..(he gave his daughter some physical silver) Normally, I could not trade my way out of a paper bag...but there is an allure to commodities... ES
Bernanke has my trust, he is much better than his european counterparts or Greenspan. Interesting idea to assess whether having a manufacturing base will have an impact! I am confident in US and western economy because manufacturing is overated. If it took china 15 years to become a large manufacturing country, it will take the US less than 5 years to become one should it be needed thanks to much higher level of education. I doubt it will be needed though!