So much theory, so little real-time calls!!!

Discussion in 'Psychology' started by OddTrader, May 15, 2008.

  1. Psychologically, I guess most if not all profitable/ disciplined/ confident traders on ET individually would have the desires and funs that drive her/ him at least a few times to post/ provide some high-probability calls real-time in order to prove/ demonstrate her/ his trading successful/ profitable theories/ strategies/ systems/ methods that may or may not have been briefly posted/ mentioned openly on ET.

    Is this assumption correct and valid in general terms? Why?
     
  2. Tums

    Tums

    it's a perception.
     
  3. As soon as a profitable/ disciplined/ confident trader would make a real time call that would go wrong, ET would have a hard time coping with the bandwith of an invasion of a million angry trolls and their inevitable shower of insults.

    EliteTrader : Lowering standards since 1999 (tm)
     
  4. I planned to do just that to becalm my sea of critics. But I found in multiple tests that the time stamp here is wildly unreliable. Were that ever fixed, I would cheerfully make bad real-time calls. I would do this knowing full well that I would be subject to the same hooting abuse that I received when I used to routinely post execution reports of the brilliant single car one minute trades I make to pay for my daily champagne ration.
     
  5. Seems to me here is the parity.

    The ones (like JH) frequently promoting their therories/ strategies (probably due to limited value) would not make many calls often, whereas the others (like Surfer) frequntly make so many calls would not explain/ promote their theories/ strategies (probably due to ongoing changes)! :D

    Hypo simply is an exception! :cool:
     

  6. I beg to differ, or not, but commodity wise, surf has had a decent run of calls.

    Not a fantastic run, but good enough, imo, to be worth a casual glance occasionally.

    To be fair, i dont follow stocks, so he could make as many calls as he wanted, but, to be very specific, his oil calls over -a few years, i guess, have been "almost" as good as mine.

    He called the base of oil, at the 45$ish mark, IIRC, called it a huge buy, and golly, it was.
    You want to knitpick over freakin great work, then do so, but try and be aware of the history , you know.

    All i got to say, after all, he stole my girl.The bastard:D
     
  7. Did he make a call first, in advance? :D
     
  8. I doubt this is the reason that most people don't post real-time calls, though undoubtedly it applies to some, but my trades are extremely short term and reactionary... I would always be posting AFTER a trade ran 10-20 cents in my favor, since that's usually immediately after my entry, being a scalper, and people would be skeptical and find the calls useless since they can't piggyback them.

    I do have a system with a longer timeframe which I suppose I could post on ET whenever I get into a trade, but A) it has a win percentage of less than 30%, though it has killer R:R, and B) it would be easy to figure out what I'm doing and dilute my edge - fuck that.
     
  9. you mean "NOT" in your favor...:D
     
  10. Very interesting feedback indeed, psychologically speaking! :D
     
    #10     May 15, 2008