This is gonna be daytrade crack in the coming week. I wish we can fast forward to Monday and get the game on. So do you avoid gamble/trade on this whore? Avoid financials at all cost and watch the action from sideline, etc.. My prediction on this pig: Lots of knife catchers between $30-$35. They are sweating bullets this weekend and just want out Monday morning on a JPM Chase takeover at say $45 looking for the homerun. The deal is not done. They watch a piss earnings number. They freak out in pre-market and BSC is at $23. Lawsuits are circuling, BSC employees losing jobs, etc...Oh no, it's Charlie G....A foreign investment bank is in serious talks, BSC won't FAIL permanently plus you got the rate cut coming. BSC is halted and opens at $50. I have no position currently and am scared of this.
BSC will never see $50 again. It cannot recover from a bank-run. The only option is for BSC to be absorbed and the name taken off the building. BSC is forever tainted.
Yeah, and how many other firms are in the same situation. Trying to camouflage their over-leveraged nightmares? If BSC can lose its cash position on a dime, many more are likely just as vulnerable. Unless these securitised markets come back (in price) firms are sitting ducks. Still in the early innings. pS
ubs safer play. Even if they get bailed out your upside is so limited, and you may get a great pop. The gov stole 30 points from me Friday. That piece of dung should have gone to zero.
JPM is not the only people that want to buy. Bank of scottland wants BSC too. Theres going to be a bidding war, not to mention that there is probably going to be alot more interest we will hear about by monday. If we hear of warren buffet interested in making a bid on monday, expect 60 per share. He was interested in buying 20% of BSC last year at 120 per share. Surely this price range now has got him interested even more and with the name like buffet behind you confidence is instantly restored and in a few years, after credit crisis you got a 150 dollar stock again. Of course buffet is kind of a hail mary play right now, and that the absolute best case scenario, but since all we hear about is worst case for the last 24 hours, i thought i would throw that in there to remind some of you that buffet was interested at 120 last year.
I pulled my valuation from the same place everyone else has in the last 24 hours who are saying the company is going to 20 or 10 or zero. Out my ass. Nobody knows the value of BSC right now yet people are saying its worth zero. If it was worth zero, then there is a chance it could be worth less than zero and why would anyone buy a company worth less than zero? Its a liquidity problem, not a credit problem. Buying 11 billion in assets for 6 billion with a billion or two per year in income seems like a pretty good deal. A few years from now when we are out of the credit crisis some company is going to be pretty happy with their new assets & income from BSC.
A lot of Banks have stopped trading with BSC last friday, they are unlike to restart trading with BSC next week, so the shares could plunge even futher as its business takes a pounding. As for a takeover, BSC's business is mainly Prime Brokerage and Fixed INcome and this is where most of the problems are. No other Bank is going to touch these areas. The swap spreads on Lehman Brothers rocketed to 465 yesterday, mirroring the moves in Bear Stearns debt days before. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are in free-fall, threatening to set off another cascade of bank writedowns. Everyone will be looking at the next weakest to fall. There are too many snouts in the trough - a few falling by the wayside will be better in the long run for the ones that remain.
so then, the 80 dollar book value is incorrect and needs to be repriced? you may be right; but then again value may be pegged at 60 plus by buffet or rbs, etc. then watch out on monday. i do understand the concept of why they cannot go forward after the run; but as someone who has a close friend running a desk there for more than a decade ; i believe this thing goes over 50.