What's so stupid about that? yeah, i figured it was a long time ago. Things have changed quite a bit. So has trading.
Obviously, it all comes down to your own account size: if you have big enough capital and are successful enough, so you can confidently earn your living with purely trading, then it's a completely different story. But if you have, say 100k and earn consistently 20% a year then that's still roughly 1600 a month. And that's below average salary WHILE being a top trader beating 99% of funds out there (assuming you have a decent Sharpe). What's your logical conclusion here in terms of how to move forward?
In the past i have made 200% on 300K in one year, it was an outlier year, very high volatility. I would say the limit to my method is 2M, i could make 200% on 2M in that kind of outlier year. This is all down to leverage. Not really my trading skills producing those returns. My method does not scale to the moon, not enough for a 100M fund anyway: Some of the markets i trade are more liquid than others. If i want to bet using the same risk level in each market. My capacity is limited by the least liquid market i trade. I could drop those lower capacity markets and only trade the higher capacity markets but then the quality of my method suffers. eg Sharpe MAR ratios reduce.
+80% win rate on 1:3 risk-reward. I would say my previous statement is not accurate, because picking tops and bottoms means you buy at absolute low and sell at absolute high , that is impossible. My system can pick the start of a short term trend and exit at the end of a short term trend. If the called trend does not come true, I know at earliest when the trend fails and right to exit at that level.
For your method you can use an Optimal (Full Kelly) bet fraction of 73%, or Half Kelly: 36%, or Quarter Kelly: 18%. You should be very rich already. Why are you wasting your time here with us bums.
Well, like I mentioned earlier I think it's hard to gain access to capital as an independent trader. If I were in the fortunate position to have someone stake me I would probably do it considering that I'm undercapitalized. I still think you're comparing apples and oranges, though, comparing returns of multi-million and even billion sized funds versus a retail trading account. Even at $100K that's still a very modest sum for day trading liquid futures. I for one would not be satisfied with 20% per year day trading futures.
I think you're too humble. It's very easy to blow up a 300K account trading with leverage. I saw at least one guy on this board almost do it. He went silent, so maybe he actually did blow up. Another guy took 10K to 100K rather quickly and then lost it all again... Consistency and managing drawdowns/risk is the hard part in this game, IMO.
I assign $15000 on 1 ES contract. Is that too risky? My intraday system says long ES today and sell at today market close, which will be near day high.
Cant answer that without more info: If you get stopped out during one of your rare losing trades, how much would lose on each contract?