Lets use the 50 MA which quite a few people do. On the S&P, we had a few weeks of trading above the weekly 50 MA. We are on the verge again to go beyond that MA again. The MA was sloping down, but now it is flattening out. On the daily charts, using the same 50MA, we have been bullish since end of March. In the last two months, I was trying to catch swings on shorts, and we have been honestly quite bullish. Moreover, I notice that we have big ranges (1320-1360,1370-1410, 1410-1425) that we brush and scrub many times before we move to the next range. After many weeks of trying to catch trend (for example, short below MA or short below MA cross) using the daily charts, I notice counter trend at the edge of those ranges have worked better than trying to catch the trend. That counter trend being better for swings is an observation for the last two months and and it may change very soon. Also, going to a lower time frame like 15 or 30 minutes, will get us quite a few points also given the volatility. If we look back at 2001 bear market, we really didn't have much weekly bars above the 50MA, but we have many this time around. So, my reaction is "Who the hell is still buying". With that, you should know which side I am on ) However, I remind myself of these two lines every so often : - Bulls win in bull markets. Bulls and bears lose in bear market. - âThe market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.â -- John Maynard Keynes Cheers, Nimble
I'll let you in on a little "secret". Try using the 10, 21, and 40 period moving averages . . . Weekly, Daily, and Hourly. You'll be glad you did.
It's a market of stocks and within each broad index there's been strong sectors. Just look at SMH. The dead can and do rise.....
This is precisely why 95% of the ET Trading Forum is full of useless threads that revolve around absurd Bull vs Bear debates and people trying to convince each other with fundamental arguments, technical arguments, and more often than not, various interpretations of the latter two concepts that are fundamentally flawed to begin with. People like S2007S that posts about 20-30 times per day with all of these "Doom & Gloom" threads and "cut and paste" jobs just don't get it! It is NOT a stock market as Pabst so accurately states . . . It is a MARKET of stocks. One quick look at the SMH, or OIH, or UYM should be able to tell you that.
True, but some people trade the indexes, so in that case the overall health of the market is more important than individual sector or stock analysis.
to house related sectors, very BEARish market, close your eye and go short to commiditiy related sector, very BULLish market, go buy as much as you can to tech sector whether computer related or phamercetical related, some bears and some bulls, avoid them as you can if you do not know how to bet, I made a big killing on shorting IDEV, made another killing on ACOR/SQNM to service/untility related sector, moderate bullish, sniff around, maybe like BIG/WMT is good buy .........................
i do understand that there can be bull and bear sectors regardless of index trends but my question of this thread is whether the overall indexes, such as spx, are in a bull or bear trend. some may feel thats a waste of time. i would excuse those who feel that way, from participating in this thread
The question of whether this is a bull or bear market is fundamental. I've been trying to get a handle on this by looking at the 7 conditions that Jim Stack (of InvesTech) outlines as being necessary for a new bull market. I've covered four of them so far, with the latest being probably the most important: a little known indicator called the Coppock Guide.