So I just bailed out of this market

Discussion in 'Trading' started by kmiklas, Nov 5, 2019.

  1. raVar


    Which is why, for Indices, if trading the Indices directionally as an outright? I like a repeatable process, that is either "Long" or "Long-Flat".

    To see what I mean? Look at the Long-Flat process of the Non-Correlated model. It has a repeatable reason to get out, a repeatable reason to get back in. And you can run history on it, back to like ... 1961, to see how it would have worked out for you.

    When you do that? It gives you confidence in doing it into the unknown future.

    #51     Nov 6, 2019
  2. raVar


    And that's not to say that the Long-Flat process is perfect, in that model.

    It's not. It's going to get chopped up from time to time. But individual 'whipsaws' in a month here and there ... are not indicative of a process that doesn't return a positive expectancy over the long-haul.

    And seeing that positive expectancy over the long-haul?

    That's what gives you the confidence to use it, as well as the understanding of the Drawdowns you will typically see, so you don't get rattled when they do happen.
    #52     Nov 6, 2019
  3. Specterx


    2000 represented the heights of a speculative mania. We may see something similar again in our lifetimes, we may not. Note here that the prompt implosion of overvalued profitless IPOs (in WeWork's case, before they even went public) is NOT a bear point, because it shows that public market investors remain broadly cautious and skeptical, definitely not throwing caution to the wind - the extreme headline valuations of these unicorns were only briefly if ever tested in the public markets, it's mostly a mark-to-bullshit private valuation VC circle-jerk.

    My point is just that you can't claim equities as a whole are in a bubble or overvalued, nor are they likely to enter a sustained bear market. Fund managers aren't going to wake up tomorrow and dump equities yielding 5% to buy bonds yielding 2%, unless forward earnings estimates collapse or some kind of major shock (like a USA-China shooting war) panics the market.
    #53     Nov 6, 2019
    Nine_Ender and tommcginnis like this.
  4. dozu888


    I have explained this point before...

    the 'professionals' is a very wide category - typical buy side mutual fund managers are NOT my pro boys.... these people are educated in the conventional way and think very similarly to retail... MY pro boys are e.g. the trading arm of GS... who truly knows how to manipulate.

    retail is universally dumb money, hence my favorite indicator is based on retail sentiment... where as if you look at professional sentiment like CoT of 'big speculators' you get confused..
    #54     Nov 6, 2019
    #55     Nov 6, 2019
  6. d08,

    EXACTLY, long term investing, I don't predict, I just keep on buying.
    #56     Nov 6, 2019
  7. vincentnyc


    boom...just moved the remaining 40% of my 401k to cash now. i'm gonna sleep real nice tonight with my pile of cash.
    #57     Nov 6, 2019
  8. d08


    After a 10 year run, I would not keep buying either.
    #58     Nov 6, 2019
    Nobert likes this.
  9. noddyboy


    #59     Nov 6, 2019
  10. zdreg


    Not to worry,"SimpleMeLike, I will ring a bell for Kmiklas,the OP:D
    Last edited: Nov 6, 2019
    #60     Nov 6, 2019
    Nobert and murray t turtle like this.