Funny, read the title too quickly and thought it said "I just bailed out the market." I do that a lot. If the market is dropping and I short something - boom, huge rally!
I was very bearish many times in the past 10 years, very bearish for this summer. At this point I give up, I have no idea what the market is doing long-term. I've also stopped thinking the market is mostly rational, I figure it's mostly corrupt and insider-driven.
if dip waiting, the very definition of market timing, has any positive expectancy, all them hot shot fund managers with Wharton degrees and army of programmers would have defeated the indexes already... again their success rate is 3% vs. the SPY and 0.1% vs. the QQQ... so...
Lol. He was a perma-bear at 2100... I'd hate to think how much he's lost fighting this bull. Ya know I never understood why you guys hated him so much. Granted I wasn't around then, but for the time he was here when I was, he didn't seem any more off the wall than any of the other cast of characters that frequent this place. Mav74 liked him, didn't Mav and a bunch of folks go to his soiree at Mar-a-Largo? The guy snagged his wife here. She was good looking too.... and half his age right? Hell he must have done something right.
The data I look at indicates no alarm yet. What is wrong with though for example applying a stop loss to your whole system? No stop, then continue.
It's a mystery to me why so many claim the market is overvalued, etc. SPX forward earnings yield is around 5% while the 30-year is yielding two and a quarter. Compare to 2000 when the figures were 3.5% and 6% (so yes you could get nearly double the yield from risk-free treasuries). That's not remotely a speculative bubble, but pretty much fair value. Yes, those figures will get blown out of the water if inflation breaks out (forcing the Fed to hike) or if corporate earnings plunge. So if you're bearish, you need to make a clear case for why one or both of those will happen soon.
If you are right that we need to reach 2000 levels, that would be 3x to the SPX over the next 4 years?