My intuition about investing in indexes is basically invest your capital, save the dividends and invest 50% of the dividends at every 10% down. I guess you can try timing the market too.
Yeup. That question right there, is what led me eventually, to always being long and short, different markets, in different periodicities. I don't have to worry about what the Equity Indices do.
I agree, this is the best of time and the worst of time. I am grateful my full time trading "career" coincided with the longest bull market in history. I am waiting for the other shoe to drop. Best to you.
i moved all of my 2040 target fund into cash on my vanguard as of yesterday. on my company 401k...i move all of the money on the s&p 500 into cash as of yesterday which consist of 60% of my portfolio. the other 40% is still in my 2040 target date fund.
It is all starting to get that "top-heavy" feel, isn't it. How many other times have we seen these ATHs meet their doom with some bit of stupid market reaction, which drags us away from the tops for weeks (or months) on end in the past 2 years?
fear of height is very common... although people like to say the trend is your friend, when the friend is actually here they doubt his loyalty, thinking the friend will just leave suddenly.. so instead of getting abandoned by this friend, which they will feel rather silly about, they decide to 'proactively' abandon this friend first lol. ego - it does people in, every time...
For all of you that exited the market, when do you plan to re-enter the market? Why not just keep it simple and buy the market twice a month on pay day until you have +$1 Million in your account and then exit? It is not rocket sceince to know that market has gone one direction for the past +30 years. UPWARDS.
If your friend is marching up to mount everest babbling about "the greatest market ever" and condemning the fed for doing it's job you may want to consider if the heights you're reaching have some rational decision making behind them or it's just your friend coming down from his adderall again. I dont think selling everything and going to cash is very smart, but I am definitely starting to consider going heavyweight bonds into the election. All Trump has to do is tweet and the market collapses. The fed can't keep cutting rates, so the market will throw an absolute shit fit when they start raising rates over and over again. WSJ just released an article spinning the trillions moving to cash as a "possible bull indicator" which is pants on head retarded. Who's to say anything you buy will ever return back to where you bought in the event a crash? If the intrinsic value is significantly below where you bought it, it will never return. The principle failing of dollar cost averaging is it only works if you maintain a contribution at or below the intrinsic value of the thing you're buying. The flaw of indexing is simple. Indexes have no rational process for stock selection, and they hold stocks in equal weight despite some performing better than others. Market cap weighting isn't a great strategy. Now is a perfect time to review your investments and adjust as appropriate. If I was nearing retirement I'd probably be almost 100% cash and cash equivalents.
how is heavyweight bonds a good move if they 'raise rates over and over' where is the WSJ article? if it's true then it IS a major bullish indicator... if such a big move happens while the market is moving UP... that is sooper dooper bullish. dollar cost averaging takes advantage of volatility, it does buy more shares when the price is low, or below intrinsic. I can retire any time, still having satisfaction at my consulting job, but I am 93% stocks 5% bonds... all cash won't last.. say you live another 40 years, at $200k a year, that's $8m in cash you park in a checking account lol.. yeah I can get by with $100k, but why live the low life lol.
The Sep 2000 equity high took 7 years to eclipse... in 2007. Anyone recall what happened in 2007? Market drops 55%. Over 16 months. Market takes over 4 years to eclipse 2007 high. Nearly 13 years before before 1560 eclipsed.