Discussion in 'Trading' started by kmiklas, Nov 5, 2019.
LLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLOL. This is like me with my first gf. I love you so much. lol
Nice work sir,
I am long and strong S&P 500. The trend is UP.
Questions , when i see adds like that :
1 - was this Aprils 1'st fools joke, brought by marketing team to their leader.
2 - if not, then, - their marketing CEO, he was having lsd vocation or something ?
3 - their targeting audience - .... ... ?
4 - what kind of effect it had, on someones reputation , who brought this to CEO at the table as a good/creative idea.
5 - how long after - he/she asked for a raise.
Good points & but, it's fascinating, not in the best way.
I mean, it's like reverse euphoria stage, in there everyone expects sky high & while this is opposite.
(the worst part - among experts too & not simple folks)
We do know it's coming, yet we don't know when ; great ones like Dalio ,,missed it''/changed the date, so whats the point anymore(?) for a retailer to try to predict it ; instead everyone should act accordingly to their own plan, once it begins and that spy's 10 yrs support line breaks, after failed double/triple bottom.
As I start getting better at trading I have tended to pull towards more fundamental and value based analysis.
Dalio et al. go on CNBC to talk about what they think, the pundits sell it as a prediction, and everyone goes "see not even the experts know!". You need to look into the fundamentals of the situation. Every technician will attempt to call the bottom and fail just as well - because this is a fundamentally different situation. It's very easy to say trendlines and whatever voodoo you believe in work when we've been on a 10 year long rocket ship to the moon.
What do I mean? Look at the crazy P/B companies that have zero proof of profitability are trading at ($UBER, $LYFT, all the new IPOs basically). Take the market's temperature - why is everyone IPOing all of the sudden? Perhaps its a sense from management that VC capital is drying up and they need to spread their risk out quickly. Look at WeWork and the near IPO dumpster fire that was going to be, and the subsequent fallout it had on other trading in SoftBank companies. How many of the companies in SoftBank's portfolio have shown a single profitable year, or even a reasonably positive ROIC? Last I checked $UBER and $LYFT are in a coupon war to the bottom handing out free money to everyone and simultaneously trying to fight of a litany of legal problems. What's happening with the repo rate? Why do we keep slashing interest rates?
To me, we're seeing something akin to the dot com burst. The higher we go, in my mind, the closer we come to flipping a simple recession into a literal depression. Everything is deeply overvalued. My filters for good value stocks to look into are turning up 10s of stocks instead of hundreds like they used to. We are quite literally in some extraordinary times.
I remember having similar thoughts in August of 2006
We truly are. And im grateful for that.
And as long as those retirement fund keeps pushing on buybacks , your list of 10s might get even shorter.
Mind sharing a name or two tho ?
And a short reasoning behind them as your pickups ?
Got my own watchlist, just curious.
Fortunately or unfortunately, trading via logic doesn't work.
Trading via fundamentals or logic is a losing strategy.
How many times have you seen a share rise which was illogical.
The other day I missed this trade when it broke out in first hours because I did a quick scan on the company and thought, "fuckit, these directors and this Co. are clueless", before it went troppo, mkt cap was $10 million, like in the poor house.
Bailing out of trading due to 'logic' is predicting the horse will bolt while in actual fact it's content to munch on hay on Wall Street.
Trading is not about being right or wrong, it's about making money in a game.
Exactly. I took some profits in QQQ related.Some thing that did surprize me , in SPY,QQQ related= i figured all those free commissions would make it much, much more of a roller caster. NOT yet anyway Another big problem for some, trend= friend but i like this super strong uptrend/ the trend is your friend...................................................................................................... TSLA is still down YTD.
Long and strong the stock market. I am buying more and more and more. only one way the market can go, and that is up. If it go down, I buy more and more and more.
Now, that you have exited. When will you get back in.
And that is a very important point.
Separate names with a comma.