I figure the markets fell into bear territory on the morning hours of Jan 22nd, 2008, so figure around 6-8 hours the bear market came and went???? Bull market 5 yrs Bear market 7 hrs... The 1.25% rate cut and free money handed out to 110 million + has prevented the markets from going into bear territory.....however I do not believe the drop is done, I think the markets are headed back down below 12k. Do not think the market is ready for 14k, thats foolish talk.
Don't think we've had a bear market yet. A bear market is what happened to technology from '00-'03, though none need to be so large as that.
This whole thing has barely begun. Monetary reactivity very aggressive but very quick - perhaps coitus interruptus on fed's side. Fiscal/policy side needs to be adjusted but will take longer - probably much longer given political gridlock. That bodes ill and long-term problematic. IMHO by the way, we may not see a bear market like a traditional bear - rather may see stable to slowly lower equities while currency depreciates. Therefore, real value in equities declines further than you think.
Just smile and trade it baby!!!! As long as things don't get so bad that theres rioting in the street thats all I care about!!!! I could care less if the whole market is a joke and a sham as long as I'm getting paid.
the jury is still out. first, not 7 hrs. We've had a bear since October. Jan 22, 08 was a capitulation. If this stimulus (rates and monetary supply) does not work, we're in for a difficult time. OTOH, if it works, I don't think there's much more downside. Just as long as they can keep LIBOR down and jobs from falling off a cliff (they haven't YET... even today's job # was not that. Cliff fall is -100K -> -500K/month), I think we'll just chop here for a while.
Why not be open minded for both possible outcomes? Look at the charts 1990 and 1995. And 1980. Not every 5 year bull market is 100% DEAD SURE GUARANTEED to be followed by a 3 year bear market. I am not sure where you get this conviction from.
I know you mentioned it being capitulation, its hard to believe it was real because of the action of lowering rates by .75bp the morning the dow was off 500 points. If the markets jumped a 1000 points without any sort of rate cut or free money, then maybe I would agree with it being capitulation...
Im not saying bear markets are supposed to last 3 years, but with the problems this economy is in, no bear market disappears in 7 hours. Sorry it just doesnt. If you read my old posts I said I would get extremely bullish under 11700, which I did and made some good returns, however seeing it dip as quick as it did makes me believe the drop is not done just yet.
Learn to daytrade, and you can make money everyday, regardless of what you THINK the market should do. Don't predict. Just react. Simple really....
As I said, go look at the charts of 1980/1981, 1990-1992 and 1995. I don't know if we're in more trouble now as we were back then, all I know is the media headlines were pretty much identical: unemployment, housing bust, consumer spent up, gold rallying, banks in trouble on bad debt, oil up, Asia taking over etc. etc. Also, I'd get more bearish the lower we go, not vice versa. It's beyond me how a trader (as opposed to a long-term value investor) could become more bullish when prices implode