Change your thinking. Your job as a trader is not to predict where the market is going. Your job is to follow the lead of the market.
Statements like this are only half correct. (though perhaps more so on a day to day and intra day level) The goal of good fundamental analysis is to make predictions about where a stock is going. Deciding if it is undervalued or overvalued and waiting for the rest of the world to realize this fact. Being wrong sometimes is part of the game, and Macroeconomic factors will come into play.
its so true! i had no ideas why we rallied after today opening bell then falling like a rock by closing bell.
I think it IS good practice to predict where one expects the market to go, how far it may go, how it may get there, (the character and complexion of trade), and to do so not only on a daily basis, but even multiple times a day. I disagree with all those that state otherwise. I allow that it may not be for everyone, and that's fine. However, just because what you propse may be good for you, does not in any way reflect that it may be good for everyone, or anyone else. I predict where and how the market may or will go many times a day, and am correct far more often then incorrect. I believe it is a great way to hone one's skills in doing so. The more often the better.
LOL <object width="425" height="355"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/7Osu4zew6pU"></param><param name="wmode" value="transparent"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/7Osu4zew6pU" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" width="425" height="355"></embed></object>
yes, its great if one can accurately predict the market, this talent is what differentiates the billionaire/millionaire & the rest of the world. if one is not good at this prediction game then, its safer to follow the flow of the market & scalping for pennies at a time.
check out any spx chart from '00 to '02 plenty of spikes on the way down. Too much money on the sidelines can't resist trying to be the geniuses who pick the bottom (dirty business). every fed announcement or chart level or good feeling gives someone a reason to buy and plenty of shorts panic and a temporary run is in the make. no one holy grail in this business. long term holds demand belief, swings and day trades demand precise timing. The ability to admit a wrong decision and learn from it goes a long way and most of all understanding that some trades just don't do what their supposed to do and you don't dwell on why or let it scare you out of the same set up next time (after two or three rethink set up).
Forget the news. Stick to the charts. Analyze your surroundings, determine the nearby lows and highs. Where are people buying and where are they selling. Once that has been determined buy very low and sell very high. Realize that even in bear markets there is constant buying and in bull markets constant selling. Follow what money does and position yourself in areas where your stop can be a fraction of your target. Do not let your rationalization EVER interfere with the charts. What you think about the economy means absolutely nothing to the stock market. Anek