Paul Samuelson was a keysian hack... But yes the market is forward looking. Leading indicator of market sentiment... Look at how many people on here have completely switched to bearish because of a correction... Many of you guys have a backward looking view for sure haha..
I appreciate where you're coming from, but the interpretation you're citing is incorrect itself. Taking a Weiner process from a Brownian motion (random walk) underlayment, implies a 50|50 split between some movement up, and some movement down. It remains a pretty fair representation of a market price path. A recession, however, is a wholly different kettle of fish -- to which the CNBC cite wrongly seeks to draw equivalencies. You are talking about output, not prices; you are talking about a movement biased by construction downward, not one where, on any Next Draw, the Independent & Identically-Distributed assumptions would observe "Sorry, Sheriff! Can't tell up nor down!" Not to get nerdy, but Paul pwned CNBC a'priori.
No, no, I long ago realized there is no holy grail leading indicator. What I was really wondering is whether one should even attempt to study/measure economy leading indicators - if essentially they are triggered by the market cratering, and nothing can predict that, then studying the economy leading indicators would be a complete waste of time. I suspect this is not the case (and most peeps in here, including yourself, seem to think this). Thanks!
According to NBER National Bureau of Economic Research the last recession "officially" began in Dec'07. SPX on monthly chart topped in Oct, closed down mid bar in Nov, a Doji in Dec then mostly lower lows thereafter till March '09 bottom. There is your answer - at least as far as last time is concerned. No advance indication.