so do we get a cut?

Discussion in 'Economics' started by dhpar, Aug 29, 2007.

what happens on Sep-18?

  1. no change

    66 vote(s)
    47.5%
  2. 25bps cut

    58 vote(s)
    41.7%
  3. 50bps cut

    15 vote(s)
    10.8%
  1. dhpar

    dhpar

    I have to quote myself from about 2 weeks ago. it is really happening - unprecedented.
     
    #71     Sep 18, 2007
  2. S2007S

    S2007S

    cutting rates will only be worse in the long run.......rates are fine where they are, adding more liquidity into this market will only inflate other asset classes causing more bubbles in other markets in the next 12-18 months.
     
    #73     Sep 18, 2007
  3. How many times you gonna say this? :)
     
    #74     Sep 18, 2007
  4. S2007S

    S2007S


    Plenty of times,

    How many times did I mention about housing stocks and housing prices falling....

    Im not going to stop either :D
     
    #75     Sep 18, 2007
  5. ssblack

    ssblack

    Yeah, I don't blame you, until it stops happening (from one class to another) then you may as well continue. :D
     
    #76     Sep 18, 2007
  6. Exactly. It's pretty funny how people have come to think that the artificially low prices of risk we have seen are sustainable and healthy. The tightening liquidity is a natural consequence of risk being PROPERLY repriced through each level of the economy, and people are crying foul and begging for a rate cut to try to keep the ponzi scheme going that much longer.

    It's also interesting how people don't realize that FED interest rate policy is not going to stop the readjustments in risk pricing going on. Now that the secondary debt markets have evaporated, bankers are now exposed to risk directly. They will charge a healthy price to take on that risk.

    Particularly in the most inflated RE areas, we will see housing continue to contract and readjust to levels where consumers can actually AFFORD the price of risk that banks now charge. This means DOCUMENTED loans that scrutinize REAL WAGES. That means PRE 2003 levels statewide for states like CA, FL, etc.

    RoughTrader
     
    #77     Sep 18, 2007
  7. jjf

    jjf

    If you are talking 20% deposit and repayments not exceeding 33% of annual income, then you must be looking at a 50- 60% price drop.
    Add in selling agents fees and you are talking about a massive transfer of wealth in the next 3 years.
     
    #78     Sep 18, 2007
  8. S2007S

    S2007S

    30-50% in some of the most hottest markets over the last 4-6 years.

    Most markets in the short term are ready for another 10% drop in prices and most likey another 20% in the next 2-3 years.

    Dont listen to the fools who tell you the bottom is in, its not in and wont be for quite sometime. I would wait until 1-2 homebuilders go bankrupt over the next 1-2 years at that time 12-18 months later will probably mark a bottom in real estate. Could easily go on for 4-5 years as well. Look back in the late 80's and early 90's.
     
    #79     Sep 18, 2007
  9. S2007S

    S2007S


    agree 10000%

    any rate in cuts will only create bubbles some where else. Liquidity drying up should be taken as a sign that its time to back off and let the markets do there own thing without any kind of interference from the federal reserve.
     
    #80     Sep 18, 2007