This person said it perfectly... Think of it as supply and demand. Too much supply will lower your price tag. The girl needs a supply shock to make her realize some value. Cheers!
2nd interview on Friday with the VP Finance. Wish me luck. Anyway, market is near 1400. Watch for the massive squeeze. Try to sell the upside capitulation. As I said earlier in this journal, the market will make a new high and squeeze up. Here it is. The top is coming. Be ready to sell. Kurt
Just realized I did not post my recent prediction in this thread, I put it in another thread, leading to an invalid reference in my last post... "01-27-12 12:08 AM I'd be very surprised to see the market break 1400. But if managers are chasing this rally and shorts are covering, we very well may break it, creating a significant short squeeze to 1500. That is all easily possible. The dollar index has been bouncing since August 2011 due to the outflows from the Euro, commodities and the stock market. Bonds are slightly coming off highs but without a significant correction from the blast higher when the Fed announced its plan to buy. The fed did not announce a new purchase program yet bonds remain consolidated near highs. Job market stagnant. Housing sector not improving. China potentially slowing... There is no reason for the market to make new highs other than a potential short squeeze and the market is ground higher in light volume. Smart money is waiting for the morons to buy 1450 or higher. Smart money will sell to them, the market will snap lower, and the market will return to its range. It feels to me as is AAPL is leading the market higher via the QQQQ, which has been outperforming the S&P. The market can just as easily collapse from this current area, since no one in their right mind should buy 1400. We are sideways, and potentially approaching the 2nd leg of a bear market. ------------ And so rather than predict the 2 potential outcomes (failure at resistance or short squeeze beyond 1400) I'd rather say that the short after the blast beyond 1400 is a strong sell. In my long term account I am still 5/6 cash and 1/6 stocks after bailing before the recent correction. I did NOT aggressively buy the dip. I just slowly added some money to stocks after the market bottomed. If we blast up I'll sell that small portion and think about the potential dip in bonds. ------------ The really interesting thing is.... with the market where it is, and the economic data where it is..... if things did improve..... it looks like we could test 07 highs, which makes absolutely no sense! Hell, right now we are nearing 08 highs, as if the market shrugged off the entire mortgage crisis! I have to think this entire bounce from 08 lows is a combination of hope and a natural inverse-correction of an overstretched 08 sell off. Due to the sluggish speed of the economic recovery, I expect a sideways market with ups and downs for quite some time (years) with bear market potential. I expect an eventual sell off to S&P 1000, even if it is just for a day. I am a big time buyer down at S&P 1000, which is exactly why it may not reach there. I missed the buy on the dip because 1000 was my target, it was too good of a target to be true. Though, I still think a nice news nugget can make the move happen. A break of 1000 would be intense. ---------------------------- I'm not sure what the bulls are thinking, trying to take us past 08 highs... But whatever, let them hold their noses and buy. I guess it could also be a bet on the complete destruction of.... the dollar? Sure, I could buy into that, but also into the destruction of the Euro.... But would that really prove well for stocks? Buy gold? Buy land? What gains value in the event of an economic meltdown? Just shorting I suppose. I don't know really. Either way, I repeat 1. Sell the blast past 1400, the market needs to shake everyone out to go lower. 2. Buy S&P 1000 unless there are signals of an apocalypse lol. The S&P is not worth any less imo." //////////////////////////////// //////////////////////////////// From another thread: "03-20-12 12:50 AM Market will squeeze up, money will flood out of bonds, mutual funds will keep pumping, and money managers will chase, creating an exaggerated move up. We are getting close to the multi-year high. Something like this needs to happen so that people can lose money in a market that everyone is either skeptical or hedged. Anyone realize that the market has basically shrugged off the mortgage crisis? Shrugged off euro concerns? Apple is becoming parabolic, a significant break above 600 will create an upside vacuum, creating a short-term blow off top. My advice? Watch the bond markets. When the yield becomes attractive relative to market opportunities again, we will see the top in the stock market. Gold may be forming inverse head and shoulders. Dollar index not making significant bounce off lows. Watch for several things to happen at a similar time: 1. Dollar new lows or continued stagnation 2. Gold approaching highs 3. Sell-off, stabilization and retest in the TLT 4. Euro weakness 5. Weak job numbers into spring 6. Stock market top and move to range low S&P 1100 area. Continued currency weakness and devaluation leads to cash flow into metals and bonds. Stock market will not double dip because money must remain in assets, stock market has a forced floor. Additionally, businesses aren't struggling. Growth may become stunted, leading to multiple contraction, but not enough to warrant a sell off to 2008 levels. Though, there is the chance of a financial meltdown leading to another housing market crash, 401k liquidation, etc. I can't say that won't happen, any number of events and factors can trigger it. However, I see the probability of this happening trending lower and lower. Long-term, we are at the mercy of the debt problem, the Fed's willingness to print more bills, and overseas growth rates. Unless a new industry comes in, we can expect to be range bound for quite some time. It is not unwise to sell up here. Let the market come in, and buy as low as you can before the holidays. The opportunity might only last 1-3 days, before we pop back up and begin another grind up to range highs. That is March's theory."
The Case of the Bulls: Let's see, what if things are better than we think. We had the expansion and industrialization of the USA throughout the 1900s. Then the internet, computers and the tech pop... leading us here. Powerful upper class, weakening middle class, hopeless poor. With the population becoming fed up with the status quo, more attention is being given to reformation of tax codes, etc. Here's the point... (If it happens) The rise of the middle class could be the next bull market. Companies are leaner and meaner after cutting down operating costs during the 08 crash. As tax rates go up on the rich, and policies are implemented to benefit the middle and lower classes, the majority of the population benefits. The rich have sucked up loads of money from the masses, their posture is society is secured. They have corporate control, all is well. *Note: if we tax the shit out of the rich, they might just establish themselves outside the US* Now, Obama and friends start to play Robin Hood. Take from the rich, give to the poor. The lower classes benefit, boosting small business, creating jobs, boosting housing, etc. Of course, all this activity of the underlings feeds back up to big business. This comes in addition to the growth US companies are already experiencing overseas. Combined, this process could take us back to 07 levels, maybe higher. But wait, let's not forget about the elephant in lingerie hanging upside down on the sex swing. The national debt and toxic mortgages. I think we all look at the national debt and think, no one is ever going to fix that, not in our lifetimes. Furthermore, bank income will remain subdued as long as the housing market and jobs sucks. Warren Buffet bought the dip. He says, "tax the sh!t out of me." He knows that if the middle classes grows, he's going to make a gdamn killing on that investment. So, that is the bull bet. Only logical reason we are trading up here other than asset inflation at the expense of currencies, and the fact there aren't many safe havens out there right now. US Equities are one of the safer things to be in. However, money doesn't stay still. If we are here only out of necessity, eventually that will change. Who will lead the middle class to glory? Obama Osama? Richy Rich? The 99%? Haha, who knows. Maybe in 20 years when all the geezers have died off the 99% generation can win some seats in congress. Until then, business as usual.
Well, even though all my interviews went well, but someone came in with 'more experience.' I really thought I had that one. It was an nice office job with Airgas - ARG. Would have been perfect for me... Oh well. Time to continue the hunt for proper pay. I know all my fans can't wait for ET's favorite to get back at the grind, but it is a cruel world that prevents most from achieving their true potential. I will have proper trading capital.... one day......
Also, check out Gelber. They have an office in San Diego. http://www.gelbergroup.com/Gelber_Group/Home.html