6/23/11 Gross: +222 Shares: 21,400 Net: +105 ---------------------------- Another one of those roller coaster type days. Failed in trading less. Attacked the oil weakness near the open, and got some quick money shorting BHI. Gave the morning gains back shorting HAL and other oil stocks on the bounce. Would have had a great day if these things collapsed. Can't be upset with taking the trade, though I definitely could have limited my losses, I let things run against me a bit too far. Got ripped in RHT. I was gaming at that 45.50 area as it came off highs. I started short with size, using the sellers at 50 as my cusion. It began to work, producing a 15 or so cent move. There was previously a lot of buying at 50 cents. The price quickly returned to 50 cents and I didn't take outs. I felt the 50 level would break and that RHT had bounce potential. I covered my short for a cent loss, and flipped, got long with equal size. I was right, the 50 broke, and again, produced about a 15 cent move. I felt good about it. Then, the price returned back to 50 cents, broke below, and stopped me out. Then, it made its push lower. This was a very difficult trade. You would have gotten stopped out on both sides. What a pain. If RHT went either way without the lame jig, I would have had a great day. After the losses in HAL and RHT and other random crap, I was negative 120 gross at one point. Caught a winning trade in NE, buying as a seller left and the OIH was doing its midday bounce. At the same time, I took a 600 share position in FMCN. FMCN made a big push in the morning and got slammed down by a seller which held it for an extended period at 27.20. I bought 400 in the mid to high teens anticipating the break, and added once it broke. I held my entire position past the first congestion point, as I detected strength and the stock had news. I was telling myself to hold to 28, I knew it would get there. Got out of a sixth at 65 cents. FMCN reached another congestion point in the mid 70s. The stock was extended, and I wasn't about to let these pricks take my profits away. I bailed as the price jigged down a bit to the high 60s. FMCN continued to 28. I am happy I held past congestion, I traded it decently, I could have held on to a portion to my initial target. Had another winner in SONC. Bought 400 from a seller at 10.37. Reached my target at 48. My peak gross P&L was +276. I gave wayyy too much back in the last hour. Had a very difficult time taking advantage of the action. Big bids came in XOM, I'd buy, and they'd get slammed. GS chose not to follow JPM and MS. However, the biggest loser of mine in the afternoon was LPLA. LPLA had a seller allllll dayyyy longggg at 34. I watched it all day. When the market made its huge push up in the afternoon, I aggressively bought the whole, rather than waiting for the break. The market's move was not enough to beat the seller, and I got stopped out in a panic sell in the low 90s. I was very upset. If this sucker went, I would have had a great day. However, as the price failed to retest the whole, I chose to short, with 200 shares. I watched all the buying all day and knew there were more stops to be triggered. LPLA produced a nice move to the mid 50s. I'll take it, but typically what I do with these things is to short with the seller, and flip if it breaks. Did not do it this time. Then again, with that market push, how could I be short? ---------------- Not happy with the end result today. Though, the day had a ton of potential. If ANYTHING other than FMCN worked, it would have been a 500+ day. I've been having trouble getting these knockout trades to work, which pisses me off. I KNOW there is a breakout day coming, where multiple trades land well. If my big three hit today I would have neared the 1000 mark I'm sure. I failed in my goal to trade less. However, with the oil news this morning, you HAD to try for a good move. My real failure today came in playing random crap like CPB, TYC, WDC, RVBD, etc. I'll take those oil trades 10 out of 10 times. I'll take the FMCN, LPLA, NE, SONC, NEM, etc 10 out of 10 times. 105 net just won't cut it, however, it will have to do. Tomorrow's goal: trade somewhere closer to 10 tickets
kurt.. the woulda coulda shoulda scenario is a bad mindset to have in trading. just take the best trades & manage your risk. maybe you could trade different type stocks with more liquidity. trade the stocks not your pnl. your too consumed with how much money you should have made. try trading the qqq or spy if you have a feel for market direction . shooting for the big 1k day is not realitisic yet. you have to start with maybe a 300 per day profit target that you hit daily first. your pnl is a rollercoaster & your just grinding your account away. you should write down on paper. what your profit target & stop loss is each day & stick to it. that's discipline. focus on hitting singles & building your account with being consistent in your approach. otherwise your spinning your wheels with all your hopes on what should happen each day . if your don't get it together with trading with rules ( gameplan) your going to blow up your account . discipline with realsitic goals with help keep you in the game . you have to change your mindset & appraoch if your really serious about being profitable each week . trade quality setups & focus on your downside . capital preservation is key. the best traders are good risk managers .
6/24/11 Gross: +135 Shares: 23,400 Net: +6.3 ---------------------------------- Sweet, made six bucks today. Maybe I'll buy a soda. Actually traded well this morning, for once. Reached +137 by 11:10. Gave all my gains away trading the refiners like an idiot. I found the short wayyyy early. I was looking at FTO and his friends way back at 30.40. I did not take the trade. Tried for some bounces, with a bit of arrogance I'd say. I was low on tickets in the morning, I traded well. The refiner action is what boosted my shares traded today. Today obviously had huge potential on the short side of the refiners, and I blew it, fearing a 10 cent jig haha. Shorting SNDK at the 40 break reboosted my P&L. Covered decently on the first move down. Reshorted on the retest of the whole. Did NOT expect the move that came at all. I followed my exit plan, which assumed weakening momentum. Phew. The NTAP 49.50 break failed me, some whale screwed everyone. I'll talk about this later, they are killing the internet in the office.
Let's see, where was I? Right, so clearly I missed my goal of trading less. I midday (before the refiners) I was only at like 7 or so tickets and up like 170 gross or something. Of course, you can't simply IGNORE the action. The refiner action was an absolute blessing for a Friday. Why did I not short the trade I called out? I'm not sure. I recall citing that the time of day and light action seemed ripe for a jig. When I first noticed the refiners, yes, they were all weak and trending lower, but the time of day had volume light and I couldn't find anything to lean on in the level 2. If I had just traded the chart, I would have been fine. I caught sight of FTO as it consolidated up near 30.40 - 30.50. I called it out in the office as a potential short. The price than broke to the upside from consolidation. It SEEMED like the move could reverse. I opted not to short the pop. When the price quickly came back down to consolidation lows, I did not pull the trigger because I don't like that kind of action. However, a new low in an already weak stock after 11 AM was bound to yield SOMETHING. Anyway, after missing the trade, I watched as the price fell and fell. Rather than short pops or future consolidation points, I gamed for bounces, seeing as other refiners were having trouble producing new lows. The correlations began having trouble. Needless to say, I blew it. I had a decent morning and blew the trade of the day. As far as the SNDK trade goes... I shorted the 40 break, covered as it bounced. Reshorted the 40 test. I got 2 trades out of it. In the second trade, I tapped out of my complete position as I did not anticipate a new low. The whole point in getting size is to give yourself the ability to scale out, and push for bigger profits. In this case, I treated my increased size just like a 100 lot. I did this to make sure I would not finish the day net neg. Oh, another trade I want to discuss. CVI. CVI was poised for a reversal. I was so damn confident in this one. I loaded up in this one near the end of the day, long at 22.50. Heavy buying. I mean, these guys were soaking up shares left and right. Selling dwindled, for a while it seemed like the market was ready to potentially bounce. CVI had reversal written all over it. As the market popped a little, along with some of the refiners, CVI broke out into the high 60 cent area. This one felt so good. I imagine there was a bit of short covering, which is why it blasted up to about 68 cents. My first target was 72 cents... I sat there thinking about the option to take profits and finish the day strong. But I also knew this trade could be a knockout. I opted to hold my entire position and honor my stop. Soon, CVI slammed down, the buying present earlier was absent, and I was stopped out. I was pretty upset about it. However, I am glad that I sized up in this. ----------------------- There was a lot to watch today. I was watching ACN all damn day, I was really hoping for that breakout. Kept flirting with the short idea, I have no idea why I didn't take that. Free money. So to recap the day..... I had a good morning, and then blundered a great opportunity. Correlation trades are my favorite, and I suppose you can't win em all. Looking back, this one was so easy, its just the setups weren't ideal. Strangely, I chose to play even worse bounce setups. --------------------- I'm going to a house party tonight, its called the Kick Off the Summer Right Party. I checked out the guest list, the ratio doesn't look so good, but there will be booze. Parties can be fun with all the drama between people. At first everyone shrugs it off, but as the alcohol pours, and everyone loosens up, and things can unravel. I am overdressing for the occasion. I suppose, if you're going to wear clothes, why not wear clothes? Well, summer started on June 21, and I definitely haven't kicked off the summer right with my trading. I have been sizing up, I can't hate on that, that has been a goal of mine for some time. I know I have a big day coming, I feel it, I know I'm going to land some knockout trades. Need some real god damn profits to overcome these lame ass commissions. To all potential traders out there reading this journal, NEVER, EVER, trade for anything more than $2 / 1000 shares. With $2, the broker still gets paid, but you can negate it with ECN rebates. It is an absolute pain to learn to trade when your costs run up to 5.50 - 6 a ticket after ECN fees. However, once you're consistently profitable, the commissions don't matter nearly as much. They just make the path to profitability a pain. ------------ My birthday is on June 30. I am going to take the day off job #2 so that I can come in and trade. I am going to try and trade all 5 days next week. Monday will be a half day as I have both jobs. Then, I should be able to trade Tues Wed Thur Fri. However, if I party for my birthday, I may miss Friday. I am turning 27 years old. 27. Seems like just yesterday I was 23 and graduating college. I am getting old, I get tired more easily. You can see the age in my face. I am now truly an adult male human being. Happiness is an antique on the shelf, I bathe in stress. I drive away from the office pissed off for 15 minutes, and then I realize how much potential was there, and how much FUN it was. I can't imagine myself ever doing anything else. I was born for this. I want to do this the rest of my life (though I would like to get into the broker side of things hahaha). I have finally begun to size up. It is now time to execute, and get this ball rolling.
Well Friday night's party went well. Met a few new girls. Attached a pic of myself at the party. Look at that beastly analytical machine. A man and his cold Budweiser. When I told the girls that I was a trader, I was defensive about it. While I love trading, and I'm proud to be in the game, I feel the public frowns upon those living in the stock market. I was like, "I know everyone hates Wall Street, but..." Anyway, I'll be sure to report if I follow through at all. The party is over. Now it is time to focus on the week of June 27. Market LOOKS bearish, BUT it is holding its ground, for now. I feel people are afraid to be long right now. Everything has changed. Oil falling, dollar rising. "The Greece Contagion." I am pretty shocked by how much some stocks have sold off. I have to think there are buyers at these levels. I feel downside is limited, I sense we're near range lows. I don't buy the Greek BS. I also don't buy the ultra-bull theory that the economy is roaring. I think we are going to consolidate in a range until data improves, or surprises to the downside. I don't buy the oil $150 argument. I think people are just pumping up their longs. These are the same morons who were pumping silver at highs. As long as the euro is troubled, the USD will probably be somewhat stable. QE3 will not happen. Now we wait for data... Speculators could lean on the market, taking it lower, and if they do I have 50% of my 401k waiting for a better price. One of my picks, FTNT is up near highs. Keep an eye on FTNT. So for the weak of 6/27, you need to continue to watch anything related to oil. I do believe the drillers get a bounce. Watch the refiners for more volatility as well. Earnings next week include, MON, NKE, GIS, APOL, MKC, SHAW. All of these are good day trading stocks. Well, APOL has always been a pain to touch. Keep an eye on the close. Recently, the trend has been to short the close. I think the bears are done once we begin to close on the strong side. Also watch the gaps. If we gap up and don't fill, that is bullish. If we gap lower and do fill, that is bullish. Have to mention AAPL as well, which is obviously caught in a light downtrend. I don't see AAPL getting below 300. If it does, I'd take that as a sign something is seriously wrong, and this whole down move is more than a 'correction.' Either way, I expect some battles in AAPL, the movement will be good for day trading, since AAPL drags so much with it. Trading goals for the week include: 1. Let the first trade be a good one. Wait patiently for that first trade. I tend to do much better with a good start. 2. Trade less. Aim for 12 or less tickets, using 300-700 lots. 3. Look to join the trend before playing bounces 4. Do not ignore the market's metacommunications. Control risk by accepting when things are changing. You can always re-enter.
Look down on you for trading? Dude, everyone out there is trying to be an actor. Trader beats actor. LOL. Good luck.
Didn't go in today. ---------------------- Are there any stock traders out there interested in chatting about the markets / stocks / etc on skype a few times a week? We could give ourselves a cool name like "The Weapons of Mass Analysis." Name or not, I am down to host this bi to tri weekly meeting. I want to get a group of like 4-5 of us. If you primarily trade futures or options, I suppose you can join in too. Meetings would probably last 30 minutes, and generally take place sometime between 8p - 10p eastern. Topics would include: 1. Notable trades recently taken 2. Things to watch 3. Market and stock analysis 4. Market psychology 5. Females who rank as a 7 or higher on CNBC 6. Grab-bag (whatever is on your mind) This is a fantastic opportunity for new and verteran traders alike... Hop on board the S.S. KSMETANA. Inquire ASAP as space will be limited, I'm capping it at 8 members. Requirements: 1. You must be an active trader, trading real money. 2. You must be willing and able to contribute to the discussion. 3. You need a microphone and internet connection that will allow us to clearly hear you. If you're interested, you can post here or message me. My skype name is Zzzfilesk1, feel free to add me.