Snuskpelle's (kind of) Intraday Adventures 2019

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Snuskpelle, Jan 5, 2019.

  1. Buy China A50 x 2 @ 10924 stop 10477

    Re-entering market beta, Chinese going heavy on stimulus which may work for a while.
     
    #31     Jan 16, 2019
  2. Buy Russell 2000 x 15 @ 1455.29 stop 1382

    Also market beta. 1x leverage on each trade. Risk about 800 EUR on each trade, these are just for tagging along like an idiot until market shows that is a bad idea.

    Trade analysis and resumption of intraday trading delayed until later this week, putting it off due external circumstances.
     
    #32     Jan 16, 2019
  3. Sell EUR/SEK x -18000 @ 10.2571

    Just hedging account vs continued strengthening in local currency. SEK already at typical historic lows and it seems next 2008 styled Swan was delayed. New government today which includes non-left parties, so there may actually be hope for economy (though Left party conditioned its support on blocking reforms in housing & labor AFAIK).

    NAV 18092, being an idiot riding beta does wonders. A bit unsure whether to hold during afternoon news though. Think I can finally do analysis and rethink intraday strategy this afternoon, too.

    Might have to abandon silver trade if it doesn't turn here. Of course, the fact I'm feeling heat over it probably indicates I should go ahead and double trade as originally planned.
     
    Last edited: Jan 18, 2019
    #33     Jan 18, 2019
  4. Buy NAS100USD x 16 @ 6732 stop 6718

    ~200 EUR risk. Market sentiment seems strong at the moment so plan is to let this one run for rest of day.
     
    #34     Jan 18, 2019
  5. Buy XAGUSD x 415 @ 15.4108 stop 15.23

    Doubling silver position as planned on prior stop. It's now or never w.r.t. mid term trend.
     
    #35     Jan 18, 2019
  6. Close NAS100USD @ 6800

    Profit started burning in my pocket, along with seeing 1 min graph starting to flatten out. NAV 19328, had unexpected luck due to Chinese trade news.
     
    #36     Jan 18, 2019
  7. Buy NAS100USD x 3 @ 6760 stop 6711, planning to leave over weekend expecting gap up
     
    #37     Jan 18, 2019
  8. Now for an attempt of analyzing what has gone wrong. Stats of year so far:

    R/R: 1.01
    Win rate: 55.1%
    Disposition 10.4
    Realized profit: 950 EUR (pretty much all due to one trade yesterday so actually bad)
    69 trade closed (this limits statistical usefulness, 1000 obviously would be more reliable, but probably won't have that until nearing end of year)

    These general stats don't say too much given the wide variety of trades in there. Disposition of 10.4 sounds great right, but it masks the fact there are many fast and large losses I've made. R/R of 1.01 is too low, and this was also my feel that I was closing a lot of trades at profit before much less than stoploss risk.

    Looking at particular holding time distributions, we have:

    1.8 h - 1.7 weeks: 2027 EUR/70.6% win rate/1.15 RR (longest 25% of trades)
    Less than 1.8 h: -1077 EUR/~50% win rate/~0.4 RR (summed together shortest 75% of trades)

    Shows (again and again) very short term holding periods aren't profitable. To be fair, 2.4 min to 1.8 h was -116 EUR so probably an hour plus is an OK holding period.

    Long: 629 EUR/48.4% win rate/1.47 RR
    Short: 322 EUR/60.5% win rate/0.72 RR

    Long/short aren't super useful other than to show long equity bias is still alive and well (something that perhaps was surprising given end of last year).

    Notable instrument profit (not comprehensive):

    USD/JPY: 551 EUR
    NATGAS/USD: 475 EUR
    XAU/USD: 312 EUR
    AU200/USD: 228 EUR
    EUR/SEK: -118 EUR
    DE30/EUR: -162 EUR
    TWIX/USD: -191 EUR
    NAS100/USD: -247 EUR

    Was surprised that NQ was low given that it's usually my best. Basically, this was due to the first Friday of the year where I (despite having the correct bias) managed to create multiple large losses by incompetent stoploss placement.

    So to summarize, R/R sucks. In addition to this, position size management and stoploss placement has sucked. Risk management overall has kind of sucked, although I've managed to avoid killer trades (then again those are necessarily rare and probably won't show up in this few trades). And ultimately, I really shouldn't hold anything less than one hour unless I somehow get unexpected hugely favorable R/R in shorter time.
     
    Last edited: Jan 19, 2019
    #38     Jan 19, 2019
  9. Amendments to strategy in original post:

    Max trade risk changed and adding R/R target:
    Intraday: 200 EUR, 3 RR target
    Few days (swing): 400 EUR, 2 RR target
    Multi-weeks "hold on" trades: 800 EUR, 1 RR target

    The intent with the above is that for fairly intraday positions I need to limit risk to be able to relax. Moreover, I need to place tight stop loss in order to achieve a good R/R on intraday. And furthermore, if I cannot figure out a place to place a tight SL, I shouldn't be taking the trade (or keep the position very small).

    Meanwhile, I'm reasonably experienced on longer periods and besides need fairly extensive stop losses for those to avoid temporary spikes closing positions at a loss, while still retaining meaningful position sizes.

    I need to write the tool for calculating reasonable minimum stoploss levels based on present volatility, but it's just a matter of how complicated to make it. In an ideal world I would have that integrated in a trade application, but that will have to wait as the retail CFD app I'm using don't have good plugin support. (I've also toyed with writing my own which would also help me with semiautomatic management of algos. Of course, this is exactly what I could do in e.g. MT but I hate that platform.)
     
    #39     Jan 19, 2019
  10. Account NAV 19284, Realized account profit: 591 EUR

    Having 3x equity long exposure. Taking a bit of a risk having extra positions given Trump's propensity to tweet retarded stuff during weekends, but w/e. Silver positions about to get gapped through SL on Monday unless he does, though (but fine because I'm at almost half of original planned risk in total for those two trades).

    This week was better than last, but it's solely due to a yesterday being decent. I've kind of exceeded my minimum target for past two weeks due to this, but still lagging mental target considering first week of January sucked. Moreover, I should be more concerned if this is repeatable or not.
     
    Last edited: Jan 19, 2019
    #40     Jan 19, 2019