I've seen the price target 1150 around for a while on certain non-descript blogs and such. If you look back in 2007, you can see a head and shoulders. The target of that is right around 1150 and amazingly enough the PnF target is just that. I honestly didnt believe it, but what you dont believe usually happens.
so 1150 = buy. Maybe for a bounce, the long term outlook is down. DOW is headed below 10k s&p 1050, maybe it will break a 1000, that is a possibility.
nope, unless something really drastic happens then we will prob make the bottom this week at 1100-1150 or something. hopefully AIG goes to like 0.80 tomorrow or wednesday, and MER to <10 and the ES capitulates. then i am a buyer as predicted weeks ago this is all happening to plan crashes never happen when every idiot is predicting one remember that. it is unlikely that historic trend will change now...
That is where I will look for a pivot myself. However, it might not stop there. I think we have a few options to pick from with one of them being 1150. I definately think it will go lower after today's close not higher. I think we have maybe one more major company to go bankrupt and you can take the guess. Morgan? Maybe a large bank like WaMu. This next step down I think will be the worst for all with many long term accounts wiped out. Im certainly in the weeds on quite a few of these financials.
50% fib retracement from 2002-2003 lows to 2007 high is in the 1160-1170 area. Sounds like we've got some confluence going on, but we'll probably get some nice congestion, with a short term bounce, because our problems will haunt this market well throughout 2009 and into 2010. I don't see us "bottoming" for a full year. The trend will be down for some time to come.
it all depends. if people go under and arent bailed out then we can bottom i think. if the fed and paulson just bottles it and bails MER and AIG this weekend for example, then we may have equities sticking in a range for years. personally i think a 'miracle' equity rally combined with a slowly weakening dollar is the most likely outcome if you look at past historical situations like this
Ben has sure been quiet through al of this - letting Paulson foot shit around. Bernanke needs to grow a pair and raise a half point - shake out the weak hands once and for all.