As I mentioned I went to sim. Took only one trade since. Took a shot at the potential double top. Didn't work. Trades so far: 1/18: W:2 L:1 E:0 Won: +9 Lost: -2 Profit for day (in pts): +7 1/19: W:4 L:0 E:1 Won: +6 Lost: 0 Profit for day (in pts): +6 1/20: W:2 L:6 E:0 Won: +3 Lost: -28 Loss for day (in pts): -25 1/21: W:0 L:2 E:0 Won: 0 Lost: -8 Loss for day (in pts): -8
The old ' let's give this one a try ' trade ? Rarely works for me. Trend looks a little too strong for me to anticipate a DT. Might want to tighten up your stop when support seemed to hold. Still learning myself but patience and knowing your set ups seems key so far for me. good luck.
Thanks babykuttan! Indeed they use market profile in their own way and are also following a guy called futurestrader71 who also uses MP. Looks like they are also in the learning and testing process. There are a quite a few guys now on the net claiming to using MP but not sure how many are completely honest and how many are actually trading. Enthios is a great site too but I'm not sure their method is as successful as they claim. Could be, but I don't know if its as simple as it looks. One site which I know is legit is balancetrader run by Frank Butera. Good and honest guy. But a slightly larger time frame. And he admits its alot harder than it looks Anyway, will try to find my own path and hopefully develop something which I feel comfortable with. All the best!
Yeah, you are right. True is these trades rarely do work. Been doing alot of thinking over the weekend while going over charts. Will hopefully do better this week with things a little more organized in my head.
I've been told lately I don't know what I'm talking about, so just keep that in mind. I disagree with your conclusion, you appear to have a very good read of your psychology and are quick to identify your problem areas. I found it very uncomfortable to look at myself and my self made misery while finding my fit in the marketplace. I'll bet you're right where you're supposed to be. Trading (you may find) ain't as easy as it appears. I suggest you clear out your head, and put it on paper. I understand thinking/sorting things out, but I found turning those thoughts into written rules is much more helpful, organize those thoughts on paper. I don't trade the same market as you, but I do trade with a spin off of Market Profile, the volume/price histogram. I find this indicator helpful in 1) keeping me out of bad trades and 2) identifying entries/exits. I honestly believe if you continue down the path of combining M/P with P/A you will, "develop something which I (you) feel comfortable with." But, I doubt you'll do it by Tuesday, this is going to take some time, screen time. Keep your losses close and your simulation account closer, you'll find your style/method.
Over the weekend I decided I would trade around POCs. Having seen the magic done by MP I decided that once and for all I need to see if I can make it work for me. I looked at how enthios does it and decided it wasn't my way. I liked the way balancetrader does it but was not comfortable with 1-2 things. I need to find my own twist. I decided that: a) My focus would be the POC. I would not enter a trade unless it was at the POC or within a point of it. b) I needed confirmation. This confirmation could be a candle formation, a string/upthrust, some type of divergence, a price pattern (double bottom) or some other type of price action. c) My trade could be either fade or with trend. If the fade fails and I deem that the trend is strong then I would enter with the trend. This will be the philosophy for the time being, and have started to apply it today. I had 2 trades. Trade 1: Long at 2965. The POC from Friday was around 2971. Market broke lower with the strong selling off the open (shown with yellow arrow). Market at 10am made a push up but closed near open on large volume. People were selling. Then we got a spring with large volume with the candle closing near the open. Buyers were coming in at a little below value and so I expected a reaction. I got in long but my stop was hit at the low of the entry candle at 2959 and I was out. -6pts. Trade 2: Short at 2963. It looks like the buyers have lost the game. And I decided I would take a short on a pullback close to my previous entry point. The support which failed was now resistance. We got a pullback and after the first red candle I took a short. My stop was at the swing high at 2969. Now for the exit. I decided that historically, I have not made enough profit on the trades I was right. So I decided a 1.5 profit/risk factor made sense for this trade. My exit would thus be at 2953. Basically 1 point below the low of day. The idea was that the market should test this level. Market went my way and I was out for +10pts. Profit for day: -6 + 10 = +4pts. Done for day and hopefully on the right path
Thanks for your thoughts! I have indeed started to write stuff down. I too am trying to figure out a spin off of MP that will work for me. Please let me know your thoughts on any of my trades. Good luck this week!
Today's trades: 1) Took a long off of yty's rotations at 2981 but was quickly stopped out for -4 pts. It was a hasty trade and I really should not have taken it as there was not enough support for a turnaround. 2) As trade 1 failed it was obvious this would move down, especially after the increase in volume on the down bars and the low volume pullback. Took a short @2979 and was out at a fixed profit tgt of +10pts. 3) Price moved down to yty's POC. I took a long at 2962 which looked supported by a divergence. I was taken out at 2958 as the market made a new swing low at 2957 before reversing towards the target I would have had Perhaps I should have waited for a couple of more bars. Summary: -4 +10 -4 = +2 points Trades so far: 1/18: W:2 L:1 E:0 Won: +9 Lost: -2 Profit for day (in pts): +7 1/19: W:4 L:0 E:1 Won: +6 Lost: 0 Profit for day (in pts): +6 1/20: W:2 L:6 E:0 Won: +3 Lost: -28 Loss for day (in pts): -25 1/21: W:0 L:2 E:0 Won: 0 Lost: -8 Loss for day (in pts): -8 1/24: W:1 L:1 E:0 Won: 10 Lost: -6 Loss for day (in pts): +4 1/25: W:1 L:2 E:0 Won: 10 Lost: -8 Loss for day (in pts): +2
Hi there Snowy, I was asked sometimwe ago if i could develop a strategy for FES day trading...did not have a lot of time,but came up with something... The interested person 'walked away' before I finished what I was attempting to do... FES is a bitch...but I did get something together and it does not have any MP conditions...the concept is to identify high % trades and ensure the average loss is LESS than the average profit. I don't know what your personal profit goals are, but you stops made me 'sqirm'... Jan 20 need not have happened!! If you are trading real money...what kind of leverage are you using? You have been very candid in your thread, so I would like to help you if i can...I am not a FES trader...just ES and 6E NiN