This journal will be a weekly look at the major indices from a technical perspective. Comments and discussions are welcome. A big picture view (2 years) and a close up (approx 6 months) will be looked at for the S&P 500 (SPY), Dow (DIA), Nasdq 100 (QQQQ), and the Nasdaq Composite (COMPX.X) SPY: The big picture shows a large descending channel with current prices trading in no man's land (middle of channel) after finding support on the lower channel on 7/15/08. A closer look shows that prices recently attempted to pull over resistance slightly above the 129 level, but could not successfully breakout. This past week, prices broke down through the most recent rising trendline; however, friday's rally pulled the price back over the broken trendline. If prices trade over the most recent high of 129.47, a move to the top of the descending channel will most likely unfold over time. DIA: Almost identical to the SPY. QQQQ: The big picture here shows a very large symmetrical triangle. A solid break of this either to the upside or the downside would probably lead to a decent sized move in the direction of the breakout. A closeup look shows a recent successful break of resistance at 40, as well as a pullback to just above this level during the past week. The top of the symmetrical triangle seen on the big picture chart can be seen here on the close up at approximately the 49 level. 40 appears to be important swing level, so a move down through there would most likely lead to a move to the lower boundary of the big triangle. This index has held up much better than the DIA and SPY. Nasdaq Composite: Like the Q's, this index has a big triangle visible on the big picture chart, however, this is a descending triangle. A closeup view of this index show a failed attempt for prices to break the descending trendline of the triangle during the past two weeks. Also, like the DIA and SPY, the rising trendline of the past month was broken this past week and regained on Friday. A solid break of the most recent highs of 2473.2 would be very bullish for this market. If price are repelled by the upper limits of the descending triangle again, chances are this index will see another move down to support at 2160. Thought I would include one more chart this week. USO (oil etf) The stock market has been almost an exact inverse of the oil market lately. Here on the USO chart, a large rally on Thursday broke prices out of a week long congestion area. The high of the day Thursday was a touch on the descending trendline. Prices then gapped down on Friday, and proceeded to chew down the gap of Thursday's move an close near the low of the day back inside the previous congestion area. Definitely a bearish sign for oil at least in the near term.
Well, since nobody commented yet, I thought I would: Can you simplify it, like a date and a target? I am on the record from Friday saying that the S&P will hit 1320 by the end of next week. See? One single sentence with a target and a timeframe... Keep it simple...