29.1.2015 trading results I was done very quickly today. It took me just 40min to reach my PDP (perfect daily profit). I saw another good opportunities, but when I reach PDP so fast and effortless I usually stop trading for that day because I don’t want to spoil it. T1 I saw nice situation in orderflow. Many bears trapped and in agony. I gave the market little time so it could react to them. I watched patiently and entered long after I saw the market stucked. I wanted to see a quick rejection and momentum to the long side. I didn’t see anything so I opted for quick exit at BE +1 T2 Well, I have to say that this time I was wrong about the market structure. I was expecting the market to fall because it already tested the globex high and I saw strong bears. I went short from 17146 and took quick +9 I missed nice opportunity for short at 17180 but the move was too quick and I didn’t react in time. T3 I changed my view on the market and went long from 17133. Again, I didn’t hope for a homerun and I took quick +10. I tweeted about this trade, it is excellent example of my trading style. Duration: 14 secs, heat: 0 ticks, profit: $50 Results: Today’s trading lesson: Take your profit quickly and even if you are wrong in market assessment, you can still profit!
30.1.2015 results I traded too much again. I had couple of very nice entries but altogether my performance was very mediocre. T1 Long in NQ. Valid try. I killed the positon after the market showed weakness to climb. +4 T2 Another long in NQ. This time too aggressive. -8 T3 I saw the quick short spike in NQ as a stop run. Therefore I jumped in and when I didn’t see price rejection I got off at BE+1 T4 I tweeted 15min in advance that the 4172.00 price level is going to be interresting for long trades. When the market came there I saw some trapped bears and willingness to climb so I entered. Nice trade. +11 T5 This was great lesson for me to remember not to chase the market. Always let the market come to you and join at wholesale, never join the retail mass. That is exactly what I did here and the market reacted accordingly and picked up my stop loss with 1 tick precision. -12 T6 I was frustraded from the previous trade and did reentry in YM. And again -12 T7 Market moved higher and I changed my view on it. I was looking for an opportunity for short trade. I saw that NQ as the only market (from the 4 I am watching) was able to create higher high. I entered short, but the market decided to test the MID before falling. -7 T8 Long in YM from preplanned support was a big mistake. Too hasty, without any other confirmation. -12 T9 Very nice long in Dow Jones. I saw other markets rise and desperate bears trying to push more down without any luck. Entered at excellent price and altogether I had just 1 tick heat. It is very easy to manage such a trade. When I saw the first momentum, I decided to give the market more space. +42 T10 Short in Nasdaq. Looking back, I see it as too aggressive. I missed the first momentum already and I entered too low, so I killed the position at +5 T11 Very nice long in NQ from MID. I took a quick +8 and called it a day.
I have pretty much given up on reading journals because it is always the same thing. Someone works very hard but gives it all back by overtrading and taking small profits. Unless you have some killer algo, you are not going to win over time by trading more than two or three times a day in the stock index futures. I say that knowing full well that a bunch of people who have papertraded for two months will tell me I don't know what I'm talking about. Like NoDoji said, reversals are very tricky. Get them right and you can kill it, but most of the time they will kill even very good traders. A better approach is to wait until a trend is confirmed then trade pullbacks in the trend.
Defining a Trend, then what a pull back is, too much of a pull back and you'll lose as it's a actually a reversal, have to keep going smaller, smaller I go, better the results get, the devil is definately in the details. But think bigger on the profit side at the same time to make them worth while.
No offense, but I find it entertaining how people think their way is the best, easiest etc. If you didn´t read the Market Wizards, I strongly suggest you do. The book is full of interviews with the best traders in the world (at that time) and they all contradict each other, yet they all profit. There is nothing wrong with trading pullbacks in the trend, as there is nothing wrong with trading reversals. Neither of those two is more or less dangerous, neither is easier. Just different approach. I also do trade in trends, I even trade breaks when I see a good setup, but the bread and butter are reversals.
Weekly results: 5th week of 2015 This week’s results scream at me ”NOT READY YET”. Even when I ended up in positive numbers it is not that easy and effortless trading I used to have when I was achieving the best results. Partly because the markets are just coming back to normal, but mostly because hasty nervous trading. As always, I am attaching trading log . Overall results and equity (from 7th of January, 2015):
Well sorry, but you are wrong. Reversals are far more dangerous. Don't listen to me, I don't care, but I would strongly advise you to pay attention to anything NoDoji says.
Sniper, you made money in january, which I think was a really tough month, so well done. Your commish was half your net though. Things would be easier if you could find a way to cut that down.
Reversals I admit do hurt me at times, when I marry a trade and dig in and the reversal doesn't happen and I keep giving it more space, if you can avoid doing that, then reversals are just fine IMHO. Commision wise, got to pay to play!