I went long at 48 and sold at 55 then went short. I was looking for a bounce off of the big drop from 65 to 46 and got it. At that point i figured it would continue the next leg down. There was no basinging after the precipitous drop from 65 to 46 and no volume on the spike up to 63. This sure looks like a V shaped bottom to me. This link explains the V shape pretty well. http://www.womenswallstreet.com/stocks_news/ibd/ibd.aspx?aid=311
As easyguru pointed out ,that long black candle and big volume was a textbook climax selling. This is one of those rare event, with a very high % of prob. the price will reverse n days. Then you have a double bottom, then you have a brake of the previous swing high... It seems you have let this trade run out of control and you are now in hope mode, looking for an excuse to blame someone else. Hey no hard feeling, it's happened to everyone. Maybe it' s time to realize you are in the wrong trade for the wrong reason? You are doing a disservice not only to your account but also to your trader mindset.
If a stock gets downgraded and bad press and the price goes up, that's good news, shows there's demand for the stock. BTW, as Jesse Livermore said, stocks are never too high to buy or too low to short.
I think it might go as high as 72 before finally correcting down. Closest daily cycle will be completed around 1-11-06 and if still below 70 at that time you will get 3-6 correction. If it is past 72 , correction will be twice of that. Intraday cycles will be completed 12-27 at 10:20 and 13:15 est
mikecronan, There is too much confidence in the markets yet to short stocks like SNDK, which in my opnion is still a leader. I shorted RIMM on November 23 and even that wasn't profitable!
studyandtrade, It seems you have shorting confused with investing. Shorting is specualation , entry fast, exit faster. there are no wait times when shorting. Full profits usually come within 3-4 days while the rest of the days are chop or retraces. Then re-enter again. Repeat process.
coolweb, I prefer to short when the market is bearish, not bullish. Your technique is o.k. if you like to swim against the market tide and try to make a few points on a lucky short-trade. However, if the market is bearish you should short the leaders on the downside and give them some room to fluctuate instead of being a 'nervous nelly'. Conclusion: Go With The Main Trend, Let Your Profits Run & Cut Your Losses Short.
I wouldn't call that day climax selling, although it was the practical end of the a short term selloff. A few days later the drop below that heavy down day's low trapped a lot of shorts. Then on the 15th, it gapped above its low base, trapping shorts again and adding longs. Now will see what happens as it challenges it highs. The stock could form a base between 45-65 for the next 2 months.