Where does the earnings release fall relative to lockup expiration? It's possible they could find a way to monetize their user base before then...I mean FB was in a very similar boat...minus being up against FB as a direct competitor...or get bought up by Google in a wayward bid to bolster Google+...
Earnings should be in the second or third week of August. Lockup expiration is 8/29 18.1 Billion would be a lot to pay for a nascent "camera company" thats forecast to lose $3/share on over a billion shares outstanding. I think Google's BOD might have something to say about that. But who knows. From their website lol: Snap Inc. is a camera company. We believe that reinventing the camera represents our greatest opportunity to improve the way that people live and communicate. Our products empower people to express themselves, live in the moment, learn about the world, and have fun together. ..........Snowflakes.
If you wouldn't buy now, why would you buy at all? Especially if they haven't monetized their myriad users. In that case, what isn't good @18 isn't good @8. That snowball effect is unlikely to correct unless they do something drastic. The next earnings report is expected August 9 per EW, which is before the lock-up expiry as per @vanzandt.
Twitters lock-up expired 5/2014. In the 3 months prior to expiration, shortly after its first quarterly report, it went from about $67 to $30 70 Million shares were issued with 544M outstanding. History repeats usually. twtr: http://www.nasdaq.com/markets/ipos/company/twitter-inc-763922-73652 snap: http://www.nasdaq.com/markets/ipos/company/snap-inc-899497-82723 That being said, TWTR took off after expiration, all the way to $55... which it has never seen again.
Far flakier snow has rolled into something much larger. And sorry, the beer is clouding my sense of sarcasm-I don't really believe in a Google buyout. Market irrationality on the other hand... I don't see this getting below 17.50 anytime soon. I would caveat, this is the first time I've forayed into an IPO to enter that kinda spec position or predict it's future. And Snap's business model is bullshit...that's clear. It's name however...that's a serious play on turning this year's high schoolers into next year's burgeoning market. And I mean this sarcastically (with-maybe-the-slightest-hint-of-truth); I keep having these visions of the marketing coup of the century with a MO lobby effort on advertisement (possible with this administration) followed by a buyout.
Actually, that does appear to carry quite a bit of meaning...especially living in Denver, and seeing some of the boomers that roll through here....and the snow that falls