Smith & Wesson

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by spencer, Dec 17, 2012.

  1. spencer


    Every time a terrible shooting occurs, we all go out and buy a new Glock. This happened with Giffords, Colorado etc. Good for us Americans...more fathers need to be prepared to nub the next pedo who tries to touch their daughter.

    12/14 A nut guns down elementary school

    12/16 SWHC Declines 5% amid gun control concerns

    12/17 CBI Deals With Massive Influx Of Potential Gun Buyers

    Here were the same headlines when Giffords was attacked:

    1/8/11 Nut attacks AZ rally

    1/12/11 Arizona Shootings Trigger Surge in Glock Sales Amid Fear of Ban

    IMO they will beat earnings again. Public opinion behind guns is strong, who thinks all but possibly scary looking rifles (assault weapon ban) will be banned? This is what happened the last time they beat earnings when a shooting happened during that quarter:

    Long SWHC

    PS when the shootings and debate cools down, go long SWHC vol for the next attempted shooting. 4 have happened in the last 4 years.

    You are welcome. :p
  2. Daal


    This jump in sales is a one time event while gun laws are likely to be permanent(Or at least last many years). Its not that simple
  3. lwlee


    Short term, it seems gun makers are going down.

    Cerberus has said they are selling their gun maker company.
  4. I consciously decided to,
    or felt compelled to,
    take a pistol with me to Walmart, last Saturday,
    something I had never done before...

    luckily, I made it home unharmed

  5. The children of the 1%ers were killed in this shooting. Gun control is now coming for real.

    So I would not go long.

    Hedge funds are dumping positions in Gun companies, they already know that this time the ban hammer is coming strong.
  6. Daal


    Stock is down a lot here. I wouldn't buy it or short it, its a tough call after this drop
  7. lwlee


    NRA pulled their Facebook page. Smart move to hibernate and let this thing past. Too much backlash at the moment to fight.
  8. spencer


    I have not bought the stock yet. I would suggest waiting before earnings before going long. Support or the day before earnings might be the best. There is no way they can't beat earnings. It might be just a 1 day jump. I'm not an active stock day trader fwiw. I am not pretending to always be correct - just putting an idea on the forum for others.

    The only realistic legislation for gun control is an assault weapons ban. This won't hurt S&W bad, and it might even provoke more people to buy pistols. Most Americans, including most Democrats, are pro-gun.

    10/26 Record-Low 26% in U.S. Favor Handgun Ban

    I love these foreigners who have never seen or heard the idea of citizens owning firearms, including M16s and AKs. I bet they also think the dollar will collapse and America will look like I Am Legend. :p
  9. Daal


    The problem is not the immediate legislation, problem is the market will put a lower premium on the stock and sector because they will realize how uncertain its future looks (and how exposed their earnings are to more tragedies). I wrote an article for seeking alpha this weekend saying why the stock was a strong sell. The assholes wouldn't publish because they called it 'sensitive issue' even though I addressed in the article the ethics of profiting from tragedies (which I argued in this case was actually good for the tighter gun laws case), still they didn't publish
  10. Daal


    And I call them assholes is because I believe its completely ridiculous to try to suspend transparency of information and the price mechanism in a capitalistic economy during a major event. They think they are being nice to the families but they are doing a major disservice to markets and people's decision making
    #10     Dec 18, 2012