hey smartmoney, couple questions: Do you use any other class technical indicators? Also do you adjust them from default settings like you do with BBs? great thread btw
Lev, Yes and yes. I've met very experienced traders recently who use little more than candle charts and a moving average. After researching that, I can kind of understand it. Really, all the indicators are doing is displaying the information that can be seen with a candlestick and volume indicator...and then calculated with a pencil and paper for all practical purposes. But I like to custom fit indicators. I like the MACD, moving averages, bollinger bands and a few others. I think some indicators are junk that are not as useful as others. But after that, you have to look at how the price action moves on your graphs themselves. Some kinds of movement on indicator graphs is more probable than others and that's where experience comes in. SM
I'm taking my book, but I'm bullish today (Monday). No real reason for the markets to end down today and plenty of good reasons for it to end up based on T.A. TNA is negative right now...I think it will be nice and positive by day's end. SM
I've been in cash since last Monday. This is a Trader's market, and is going to frustrate swing/position traders. Sure, there are many trends that setup DURING THE DAY, but that isn't my discipline. I haven't gone short, or bought any contra ETF's. Here are some ideas for shorts: SPMD JOE HGSI LAMR IOC Longs: SAM CRUS CYBS BVN ABV AAPL EGO CEO GIL SY ACTG Hang in there Smart Money.
Btw, with expensive stuff like AAPL, take a look at a synthetic long. That is you buying a call and selling a put with the same strike and same expiration. I have my growth to aggressive Clients sign an options agreement so I can take a long position in an expensive equity giving me control over 100 shares vs. 12-15 AAPL common shares. Risk: if AAPL declines, and even goes to zero before expiration, you're on the hook for that. Is it going to zero? No. lol!
yea i was bullish monday but was cautious long so I played tight stops but didn't matter at all because my etf gapped down. fuck! How are you guys playing this? I'm loading up long for the next 3 weeks. I think if this decline holds above 1040 s&p were good
Thanks for the ideas and stock list. I'll look through them. It will take alot to pull me away from playing TZA when I want to go short. Did I get burned by URE? Absolutely. The cost of doing business. I have a new chart (newer than the one I sent you) that is super accurate, but it was set too sensitve to catch this reversal. I've backed off the sensitivity enough to where it shows the last several days as a continuous downtrend that almost turned into an uptrend. Less sensitivity means less profits, but if it means less losses, it may be justified....gotta find that sweetspot that is the difference between good calls and bad calls. Oh well. Well, this episode casts a little doubt on my forecasting ability, so take this with a grain of salt. But we're still in a down trend for a while...I don't think we really ever went out of one since it started about a week back. Hindsight is 20/20. SM
Ok, hindsight is actually 20/18 when money is lost. Consider it tuition, and go on KNOWING you will make it back. It's those who get the tissues out over a call who add liquidity to the markets, and fade away... Ok, let me ask. Are you keeping an Xls. of the DAILY & +/- changes in several MA's? My Dad is a retired Chemical Engineer, and my Sister is a current Chemical Engineer in WV working for DOW. I guess I should have done something similar, but I chose this years ago... Imo, too late to turn back for me, nor would I. My point? You have an analytical mind as an Engineer. So do I, which is why I am HORRIBLE at sales. (No, as a Broker and RIA, I just don't have the ability to jump on the phones all day, and dial for dollars. Just isn't me, which is why I never made more than $400,000/yr with Merrill Lynch "back in the day.") What an "Engineer type" should do is keep a daily downloaded Xls YOU PRINT OUT, and study the differences in percentage change up or down in several MA's. If you do that, and create a disciplined winning strategy, you'll beat 99% of the people on ET who are too lazy to do it in the first place. When you do this, you'll start to literally see "the driver actually stepping on the gas, stepping off of it, whatever..." You'll see momentum change, and KNOW momentum. Very important! Take a look at the "Itchy cloud" (my mentor mentioned that nickname. Lol!), and take a look at the potential cross setting up with the tenkan and kijun BELOW the Kumo. (Bearish!) BUT, we'll look at PA as it takes shape, and either short if the downtrend continues, OR buy if we have a KR. If the TK and the KJ diverge, I would look for a continued down. If they cross, price moves up, AND diverges heavily from the TK line, we have a good long set up. Again, hang in there bro. We'll work this stuff out.