It's starting it's slide in earnest now. I definitely bought TZA too early, but I'm in the black now.
Hang on to it for now. You know my stop criteria... What's this market going to do? Who knows??? It's day to day. All I can say is I have 19 positions I started buying 27 May, and 17 are in the black. Sold some, bought some back... It's all about momentum right now, and is absolutely a trader's market. The trend is still down, but barely... Take a look at the longer t/f's. (Where the big elephants graze.) KR is in the works, and a down trend about to be broken. Just my opinion. I could be wrong, and if so, will stop at least right now with a nice gain for my Clients before going to cash. Again, you know my stop criteria, and I started tightening up last week. Rather be stopped out with a nice gain than a 10% typical trailing stop, losing $$$$... I am looking at equities like you are in a way... Just need to put working minds together so we see what your scans and mine are missing. We SHOULD be making GOOD $$$$ in this environment. If not, we need to work on it. I'm up 16.7% since 27 March. HOWEVER, that is WITH my shorts as well as longs. NO, I'm not mkt neutral. Pair trading is for someone with a different personality than mine. I ABSOLUTELY agree with PT methodoligies that work, but it just isn't in MY personality to manage $$$ that way. Nothing against that stragety at all imo. Anyhow, there's many ways to scan for the best longs, and the worst for shorts. I wouldn't be doing this if I wasn't making many people happy with a 24hr accessible account balance, that's 100% liquid... I swing/position, so if that's all you, PM me again, and we'll work on this. LEAPup Ooh rah!
I do, I do! I just sent you the coolest chart via PM. Hope you'll run some of your stocks through it...could be eye opening. I can tell you that things still look like they are turning south to me, and some of the few stocks you shared with me. PM me some more...I would like to analyze them! You'll see from my chart that every day we trade a little sideways or barely up is another piece of data indicating that things are going to move down. Som etimes failure to move up is a sign of an impending drop. Whenmy charts start indicating an upward move, I'll jump into some of your picks with both feet...they look good. SM
Markets are going down for a couple days. I'm betting that TZA will hit $7.25...closed at $6.97 yesterday and should open lower.
Here: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=12&id=p75403905499 Seems like it would bounce off the lower bollinger at about 107.5 or 108 which could take 2 to 3 days to hit that. After that, I think it will pop back up...that'll be when to go long, IMHO. Edit: There is the chance that it could go to 108 or 107.5 and "stick" and then slide downward on (along) the lower bollinger. That's less likely, but to be safe, make sure it was a true "bounce" off the bollinger before going long. Note: I'm not just using this graph, and I've stripped it down, but it illustrates my opinion. Everyone has an opinion, right?
OK...It did what I thought it would. Hit the target and now it's dancing around it. Though one of my charts tells me to stay in TZA (a leveraged short ETF), this bigger chart (above) says we're at the lower limit of what is *probable*. Meaning...the price could slide along the lower bollinger, but that's less likely, so I sold my TZA today. Now I'm waiting for a new set-up. Wanna know irony? if anyone is reading this blog, they'd see that I've been really accurate. I've made several calls, and only blown two minor ones and if someone had followed every call, they'd have made more than 15% so far. But the irony is that someone ranked this thread with two out of five stars. What do you have to do to get 3 stars? SM
Starting to taper into long positions. Bought TNA and URE. Looks like we're going to enter a up cycle for a few days or so. If Monday confirms, then I'll go in heavy.