Yeesh. Rattlesnake in the pasture. Surprise bad numbers. We could shake this off later in the day, but to be conservative, I'd sell every pick here because they are all high in the range. Ford is down in the premarket but because it is in the middle of the range it could come back. We're dropping in pre-market and will gap down on most everything. It's too early to predict the severity of it. Be first to sell and wait until the stampede is over. Anyone who says they saw this coming is a liar...this is part of trading. SM
BTW, TZA could go to $8 today. It's a short leveraged ETF fund. I'd try to purchase that quick...possibly first. It should help buffer losses.
Know that TZA is up to like $7.60...It may actually fall after opening bell, but should eventually get to $8. Yeah...my "free" opinions. SM
VIRL = sold at 10:00 (replaced it with DECK) GIL = losing momentum today. Tightened stop looking for an exit. Your target on NFLX was attained @ $120
Interesting. I was looking at other timeframes, and what I'm seeing is we're reaching a decision making point, which is why I've been so panicky. I'm surprised that the market shook off the bad news with the good news this morning. Net effect is that I shouldn't have paniced...but hindsight is 20/20 and everything we were looking at was so high in it's cycle that it was the prudent thing to do...or at least tighten stops. Anyway, we're at a decision making point. The odds favor us bouncing back down to the downside relatively sudden. I said I wasn't going to show graphs, but I've stripped one down to make a point: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TNA&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=12&id=p22478647796 This is my favorite ETF, which mirrors the market. For all practical purposes, this is a graph of market behavior. See how price is coming up against the midline? Price action loves to bounce off that midline. It usually does bounce off it. But when it doesn't...when it pushes through...it needs to push through solidly. For example, attempts to push through only work when price action moves at least half again as much toward the other side. Until it gets more than half way through to the upper band, I'm skeptical. This was one of the reasons why I was fairly sure we were going up yesterday...because we were well on our way to the mid-line and my targets were based on it and other graphs. But now we're where we might bounce. So we're at a decision making point that puts me in "wait and see" mode. The odds favor that we'll bounce back down, so I'd be lightening up on every long position THAT IS AFFECTED BY A DOWNDRAFT until I had confirmation that we were truly going to sustain movement across the middle line (red line)....until we were well across it. That means that you'll miss out on potential profit as it moves out, but you won't get whipsawed either. We may see another whipsaw that will make today's looks small very soon. VIRL's sideways movement is putting it into the realm of acceptability. But I'd have sold it too if I held it. GIL was a definite sell. DECK looks like one of those stocks that follows the market nicely. It looks good, but how will if fare in a downdraft? SM
OK, my report card. First of all...I got whipsawed today, so I recommended selling stuff before it made it's goal, even though some eventually did. So, I did predict up markets 1 out of 1 (1/1) WNC did reach $6.90 before I said sell, so (1/1) ZSL has not reached $37 and in fact, I recommended selling it for a loss as a precaution (0/1) Ford hasn't yet reached $11.60 (it might), but I recommended selling all longs this morning. However, the sale would have been a profit, so lets say (0.5/1) NFLX got within 15 cents of goal yesterday, and has since hit the target, but I still said sell this morning (for a decent profit), so let's say (0.5/1) TNA reached $41, and I then revised the target to $42 and it got that too. I think I should get extra credit...so lets say (1.2/1) Total points...4.2 out of 6 or 70% At this point, because of where the markets are, I don't want to recommend anything until I see where we are on Tuesday or so. If that changes, I'll let you know. SM
bp, can you post a chart with the es mp like u did a few days back,i'ld like to see where the preceding days nips were
Agreed. The markets really didn't know what they wanted to do this week. I'll have to say, I have closed out of my contra ETF's, and am going to be going long several picks IF the markets break higher next week. If not, I hold the few longs I have left, selling what isn't moving up, and tightening stops more, looking for an exit. Looks like we have a very strong shot at breaking to the upside in a KR. The million $ question is of course, when... I have no clue. Wouldn't want to speculate. However, out of around 9,200 equities scanned, their average price did increase this week .76% A welcome change from the start of May-now. Lol! The trend still is down, but what I'm seeing is a possible KR. Love to see it! If not, and we move lower next week, I'll be prepared to buy some more contra ETF's.
Thanks. Sent you a PM. You really ought to check it out. I have something sort of amazing to show you. SM