Smart Money's Swing Trades Thru T.A.

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Smart Money, Jun 9, 2010.

  1. Still in. TASR seems to have definitely resumed it's run. AVH bounced off it's moving average. Glad I stayed in. AVH was interesting because when it dropped, the volume became a trickle. It's like nobody wanted to sell at lower prices at all. So far, so good.
     
    #241     Jul 20, 2016
  2. TASR keeps on giving. AVH is on a major tear right now. I'm liking this.
     
    #242     Jul 21, 2016
  3. Sold TASR for $28.07, which is about even after trading costs. It's struggling to move up.
     
    #243     Jul 22, 2016
  4. Well damn. I held AVH too long hoping for a turn around. Took a loss and sold. Market feels like it wants to turn, which is playing hazard with long positions. Going to have to re-think my exit strategy to get out quicker next time.
     
    #244     Jul 25, 2016
  5. @Smart Money

    would you mind elaborating a bit on your backtesting? do you backtest using programming?

    Any particular advice on backtesting?
     
    #245     Jul 31, 2016
  6. Hi,

    I do backtest, but different than most. First off, you've probably heard traders talk about how the method they are using can stop working. I think there's some truth to that depending on what method you use, so I don't back test much more than a few months when i'm looking for a general method, and I do that visually. Why look back farther than that when successful methods back then may be unsuccessful now? Also, I've found that certain methods work better with certain kinds of stocks. I like slow-rolling predictable stocks that don't drop back quickly to give me time to get out. Anyway I can look at charts showing price behavior, volume, and some indicators.

    (yes...indicators, which sometimes get a bad rap but they do run certain calculations that I'd do anyway....an example is moving average...technically the moving average is an indicator and I'd rather look at it on the chart than try to figure it out in my head or with pen and paper)

    Anyway, I can look across charts and see if a method works well, and it better work most of the time for me to attempt it. Along with identifying a buy-in condition, I also find a sell condition. Then I take my method to www.stockfetcher.com and plug it in. I like using that site to help me find stocks meeting my setup criteria. Stockfetcher will also allow me to apply my setup conditions to yesterday's stock prices, or the previous day, etc., which is handy because you get a good idea of how well it works in a forward test. The method I use tends to make money about 75% of the time.

    From there, it's a matter of staying disciplined. I try to buy into stocks meeting my initial condition, but also near some type of support like a moving average or an absolute support level to help limit my losses. I am working with a new method right now that seems to be great, but I was selling too late and not paying enough attention to buying near support, so I got burned on AVH. I've fixed that (I think).

    Lastly, I try to keep an eye on the overall market direction. I try not to go long when the market is going down. During those times, I'll play commodity ETFs. Right now I'm in a short oil fund (SCO), which scares me because it's rally is getting extended, but the stock market is so toppy right now that it makes me uncomfortable going long.

    A last word of advice is to ease up on the leverage. When they say that you should never risk more than 2% of your account, I interpret that as only buying positions outright that can drop that much, and then buying enough of them to diversify.

    Smart Money
     
    #246     Jul 31, 2016
  7. Sold my SCO for a mind boggling 6% after holding it two days. I needed that after the AVH debacle. If a stock drops, I (should) sell it quickly. If a stock rises slowly, I should sell it slowly. If a stock jumps, I should jump to sell it. Finished out July nicely ahead. Now I'm waiting.
     
    #247     Aug 1, 2016