To recap, last night I said: 1. Markets will be up 2. WNC to $6.90 in a few days 3. ZSL to $37 in a few days 4. F to $11.60 in a few days 5. NFLX to $120 in a few days 6. TNA to $41 in a few days I'll post a "report card" and keep a running percentage here. SM
SM With all of the available trading environments out there why do you choose equities instead of futures and commodities?
Thats a good question. A fair question. I think that leveraged ETFs can do well enough to compete with futures. My limited understanding of futures is you're betting on the market being "way wrong", and I can make money with ETFs essentially agreeing with the market. With commodities, I can get 2:1 leverage thru an ETF, but I confess that I'd like to take on more leverage if I could. I really should look into that, but I don't know how difficult it would be to trade them with a day job. Ironically, so far ZSL, my short silver fund, is the only pick going in the wrong direction. I think thats because silver tends to move with the dramatic stock market moves (right now), but otherwise moves somewhat independently. Since the market jumped, silver got sucked up in the updraft. I think as the market calms down, silver should drop again, but thats a gut feel and doesn't have much to do with charts. FWIW, I think TNA's target of $41 was too conservative. I can see $42 perhaps even today. SM
ZSL isn't reacting how I thought it would. If I was running a portfolio, I'd probably jump off it right now at a 2% loss. Thats my "official" call. But personally, I'm holding it and I'm going to give it more time to cook. Hey, so far my wins are far, far, outweighing my losses. NFLX came within 25cents of goal, TNA hit the goal, WNC hit the goal, I was right about the market direction and the direction of everything else. If someone bought equal dollar amounts of my picks they'd be up about 5%. SM
Looking at some longer term models, TNA is acting like it wants to go to at least $43.50 in the next day or so (likely Friday) unless a war breaks out overnight or something screwy. Thats an indirect way of saying that I think the markets will be up tomorrow too, but probably not as much. I think all of the stocks I touted that didn't hit their goals will do so tomorrow (except ZSL which I have now sold off). But will this cow find a rattlesnake first? It could happen, but my bias for the market is markets will be up tomorrow unless something weird happens overseas. SM
Good call on today's rally! NFLX should hit your target. I tightened my stop on it today, however. Check out SAM, VIRL and GIL. Let me know what you think.
Why don't you place trades based on your predictions? Let your profit and loss show the value of your forecasts. If you're not confident of your accuracy yet, use a simulation account.
Thanks. I think we'll see a continuation of the rally on Friday, though not as strong. So I think all my long positions will meet projections. We'll see that reflected in morning futures if I'm correct on that. My time horizon is like 3 to 5 day swing trades and each day that goes on I push my luck that we won't have a reversal. So my advice on your stock is with the understanding that you are a trader and not a buy and hold guy. If I owned VIRL, I'd be happy as hell, but I'd be the first person in line to sell it on Friday. It overshot it's range. Now...if there was some kind of new invention, like a perpetual motion machine, it could be warranted. But it is out of the tippy top of it's range for normalcy, and I see it yo-yoing tomorrow before it settles at around $11 because that is the top of it's reasonably normal range. SAM is running out of gas in the very short run. If we rally tomorrow, I can see it going no higher than $69, but I'm pretty confident that by late next week you could buy it cheaper than if you sold it tomorrow. Again, it has a little more room to run, but it's about to bump it's head and then it will go back down. GIL might reach $32 if you're lucky before reversing. The advice I just gave for SAM pretty much applies to it. Again...this is for a 3 to 5 day time horizon. This time next year, both stocks could be double what they are today for all I know. SM
I am placing trades based on my predictions. And I continually strive to find better ways to more accurately predict things. I'm not done learning and never will be. I've increased the value of my account by about 15% in the last month. But to be honest with you, I had a breakthru last month that really helped me see things better....I had an edge before, but I had a leap forward then. Two days ago, I modified it to better suit my trading style, and that was another leap forward, but I think the jury's still out yet on that. Wanna hear something ironic though? Of all of my forecasts made yesterday, I put most of my money on ZSL...the only loser. Swear to God. I didn't distribute across all of my best picks and I realize that was a mistake...trying to save a few broker fees is penny wise but pound foolish when it comes to diversifying. I probably only made like 1.5% today despite some awesome calls. At the tail end, I posted that TNA would go another dollar (which it did) because I had just analyzed it and I played it...it helped me recoup my losses. I guess I could post my blotter, but it's too much trouble and the amount of money in it isn't that great (yet). Meaning, my account is kind of pitiful. Maybe when I have something worth showing. I'd like to think I'm providing value to the readers of this journal in the format that I'm posting it. I'll be making calls in advance that can be acted on, rather than letting people see what I did after the fact. I've seen people have arguments like "If you're really good, show your blotter" and then a bunch of bickering ensues. I'm not going to that. Simply put, my journal, my rules. I am what I am and that's all. One thing is for certain...people will either see the value in it and keep reading, or they won't see value in it and they'll go elsewhere. Either is OK with me. I intend to give myself an honest grade on my performance open book style and I'll continue to do that moving forward to show a kind of performance average. I'll probably grade myself tomorrow since I generally don't recommend holding much long over the weekends with all this saber rattling going on. SM