but you have been saying this B*S* for the past 12 months...........so W.T.F. does it matrer what your opinion is?
not really but it's been the same since this rally started 24 months ago...so it begs the question..Why even have an opinion? Thee's no money in it...Still some people just have try and loo ksmart. I prefer to make money. Each to his own! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- people bashing shorts...... this is like a yahoo board or something....
I haven't even been posting here for the past 12 months, and I wasn't bearish until about a month ago. Also I mainly trade European equity indices, so even if I had been bearish on them for the past 12 months straight I would have come out ahead for the most part (all except the Xetra Dax).
Good example is RIM. Some say its overvalued; actual financials say its undervalued. If someone owns bonds making nothing ( and some holding risk now ), how can it possibly be bad to own some RIM instead ? And note that if strong companies like RIM go up in price, that indexes like NASDAQ and TSX have to go up. And then we here people like you looking at the indexes and saying the markets are overvalued. Are they really ? What is the P/E of the S&P 500 right now ? If you think markets are overvalued then you need to short the market yourself. Are you really doing this ? Let us know your shorting choices. However, if you aren't even shorting the market, why do you expect others to do it for you ?
The S&P P/E is about 22, which is well above the historical median and average. A P/E above average would suggest above-average growth potentential/chances. I don't see this so brightly, mainly because the deleveraging cycle hasn't completed, imo. I am shorting here and there, but I'm not totally unaware of the free moolah in our buddy Bennie B's gambling palace. I'm offering more long-term and macro-economic views here, which put, imo, the odds that we will see a pretty big fall in asset prices in the high end. I've had these views for a while, but as a trader I hadn't considered the market to be totally overbought until about now. US indices haven't really gone down for about three months and there are a lot of technical signals that scream reversal, which I use to my market timing. Don't worry, we'll have this stuff going down soon enough. I consider the odds it will go up to be diminishing. Did you see the put/call volume on QQQQ today? 0.17 or something ridiculous like that. Seems like there isn't a breathing bear left in this town!
The main issue I have with this kind of analysis is it characterizes the market as one big moving beast. In fact, since mid-year I believe we have been getting much more divergence in markets and sector based plays are very important. So while we may get a correction in metals stocks in January or February, this won't effect RIM at all. There are numerous aspects of this market that remain fairly cheap. So my opinion is the overall market cannot possibly correct until every single aspect of it is overvalued, and we aren't even close to that point yet. I suspect the overall correction you are predicting will come far later then you ever dreamed possible. Again, I predict summer of 2012. Europe I admit may have bigger problems though then anywhere else. So maybe you guys go early.
Well, obviously the same information is available to all of us and I do not disagree that what you say is possible. I think you are putting the correction too far into the future, however since nobody knows when and currently the trend is up, I am not betting the farm that we will crash. I am taking short rides in the indices (both up and down, but mostly down) and long in several stocks which I agree are (or were, when I bought them, now I am not that sure) undervalued. When I see a downward move stopping and bottoming out, I am not in the habit of shorting the subsequent up-move, either. I'm not a permabear who is short all the time, just one who thinks the markets have reached too far (and could possibly reach further, unfortunately). I am long in a few things such as LAD and DRYS, both excellent and (when I bought them) undervalued stocks. Now they're approaching what they should be worth, but the markte always overreacts so I'll let em run. Edit: I do subscribe to the idea that the market is "one big moving beast". Exceptions being there, of course, the correlation between different equity issues is quite high. Hell, recently correlations between different asset classes have even been high, so the idea that the market is made up of all these little things that all make their own path, averaging out in an index, doesn't fly.
I closed all my long positions Friday. Thinking of shorting soon, but will only get in when the market give a confirm signal