Not from this selloff. It's pretty pathetic so far. Can't even manage a single percent on the indexes. Yeesh.
I actually made a fair bit of money today, the stocks I am long in ( using call options ) closed higher today. I sold my largest position after the stock made a new 52 week high this morning. I have been scaling out as I go due to upcoming expiry date. Remember, I don't trade indexes. I pick stocks in certain sectors and make short term long or short positions depending on daily/weekly circumstances. In general now, I like longs in December, shorts in January, and longs again in February-April. Exact timing is dictated as events unfold of course. With respect to the "sell off", what sell off ? Seemed like nothing much to me at all. Remember, very recently we were at 1177. We remain very close to the high for the year. I expect we'll set a new high sometime in December. Rather ironic though on one of my best trading days you were expecting a bad result.
why is it called a sell-off? are people not allow to sell anymore? insiders and some selling their stock options....millionaires in stock options if you are an employee. excersing options in some of these companies. the market makers get piss off when employee sell to them. in december employees are cashing out their stock options. free shares why not sell. and dump it. it's like collecting winning big in lottery. free money from the company to compensate for salary..
My opinion is that when you start to see bonds become less attractive equities will really roar. Profits are up, forecasts are good. In my opinion, smart money is going to be flowing out of bonds and into equities very soon. The average investor will be late to the game, but they will come off the sidelines soon too. This is my longer term outlook based purely on fundamentals. I don't "trade" the index's, only eurusd. I think we will see a nice recovery with healthy market pull backs and very healthy growth. My money is where my mouth is. If I'm wrong I'll take all the ridicule I deserve.
Your first point is bang on and probably the next catalyst to move this market higher. I think one difference now is I expect this new money to be entering large cap blue chip companies with strong earnings history ( and some yield ). A lot of current money is in risk equities and we might also get some rotation out of risk given the current index levels. Indexes almost become unimportant at this point. Sector rotation and valuations of individual equities will be important. With respect to "smart money", people are far too serious about details. What I mean is I observed some extensive buying of securities this year when the S&P 500 was at 1041. The "smart money" to me is those institutions and individuals that got into the game at that point ( ahead of the curve ).
Market recover mostly before open.. Go bear? Be my guest As I mentioned before, this market will not sell off before tax extension bill finalised, it will continue to trend up(even you don't like it) today I will continue my LONG and the Santa RALLY will be very soon( although it is a fake pump up, but who care?)