Smart money knows this market is still fairly cheap and is buying it up. The dumb money on ET is basically hysterical all upset because the markets are up 13% this year. I'd hate to see how some of you would react to a true bubble like we had in the late 1990s. By the time some people realize what they missed it will be too late. This is the nature of markets. If you are expecting a magic entry point you might be waiting until late 2012. You might get some retracement in January but certainly not to the totally unrealistic standard some of you keep posting. Corporate earnings are up and will rise again in 2011. Dividends will increase in 2011. M&A Activity may increase in 2011. Some of you bears might have some fun in mid to late 2012, but by then today's market levels will seem quite reasonable the "insanity" talk on ET will be conveniently forgotten. BOTTOM LINE WHY IS ET A HAVEN FOR CYNICS AND REALLY, REALLY BAD TOP CALLS ??? p.s. March 2009, September 2010 = great entry points, but still mass bearish hysteria on ET even at those premium points.
Bullish 14 58.33% Flat 1 4.17% Bearish 7 29.17% I prefer to keep my opinion to myself or don't have one 2 8.33% Total: 24 votes 100% ET must be long according to this poll, yet you call ET the dumb money who is short. Something does not fit here...
you trust data too much. better read messages and you will notice burst of disgust with high prices. Which is really nice indicator.
First of all, I doubt you deal with "Smart Money". My definition of smart money is the accredited investor...min. net worth 1 million excluding the home. I deal with Smart Money and have raised well into the 100s of millions, NOT ONE IS IN THE US STOCK MARKET. So, I hope your Smart Money knows what the hell they are doing.
mass bearish hysteria on ET : ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- If you use ET as a indicator, your a fool, not really in the Game, and probably a Student, or a low level banker or one who trades an account under 20k.
Data mining at its finest. Best case scenario, ET sentiment is almost complete and total APATHY. There is a world of difference between the sort of sentiment you see now and say 3-5-7 years ago. "Smart money" is oh so 1990's anyway.
whatever works i guess. it worked (so far) for last trendline break on 1/12. My experience, for large moves - multimonth, mood is spread widely around, so it really does not matter where you pick your hint. See evidence everywhere, as this kind of moves require lots of powering and victims. Not necessary to look in special places.
Nine Ender: you're talking Graham & Dodd timeframe, and in that timeframe you are correct. But this is a trading, not an investing site. So, shorter term, sentiment is way too bullish for any sort of decent upside. But we are in December, and the chances of anything happening to the downside from now until EOY is very low. So, I will make this a very simple bet: January will be down. The January effect will instead be a January defect (copyright 1990, FNN). If by Jan 31 the S&P isn't lower than it was on Jan 1, you win. I seriously doubt that's going to happen.
Finally we have some decent guy that really understand market. Market will UP until end of the year (even it is a fake optimistic pump up), and you should LONG now. Close your position after new year and wait for the signal from the market to tell you either have to LONG or SHORT. For the time being, go LONG and load up your position in LONG.