I didn't post yesterday as I didn't trade - started the new job and was too tired to get up. I did trade today though. Was up about $140 after 3 trades, then it all went to hell. Got overconfident, broke the rules and didn't follow strategy. 10 trades later was down $225 on the day. That's when I stopped trading and I went to work. I even had a $85 loser - what an abomination. It was a great day for trading Eminis though, with wide swings both ways. I will post details and the chart later on tonight. Cheers, vorzo
I beg to differ, I think it was mostly a horrible day to trade the minis. Both the NQ and the ES spiked severely at around 9:35, then quickly reversed (the NQ dropping 17 points in a few minutes, the ES dropping about 12 in the same amount of time), then the NQ reversed again right after 10am and quickly ran up 13 pts. All those moves were abrupt and difficult/impossible to game. Then both indices stayed essentially flat the entire remainder of the day until 3:15pm at which time both collapsed and then both abruptly reversed, regaining the entire downward move! The NQ had a total daily range of 19.50 points and the ES had a total range of 12.50 points, both way below their averages. If that was a "great day" for you, I would love to see what you call a difficult day.
Trading the upside was a bit difficult as the NQ and ES had to be played with an eye on both. But the downside was fairly simple with the 2B, and one could have captured most of the range with it, entering at either 1315 or 1401. --Db
I'd call crappy a day with a choppy, narrow trading range. But today, there were some nice swings, on which one could have scored big. I agree the moves were on the wild side, and they ripped through levels, but had I not been a fool and followed my strategy, there was nice cash to be made. I don't know what happened in the afternoon, I stopped trading at 11:30 EST. What do you call a nice trading day?
I always chuckle when some people talk about how simple capturing movements were (after the fact, naturally). Which downside move was "easy" to grab using a 2B, the one after the top reversal at around 10:50? Oops, that one didn't go down. How about the one after the top reversal around 11:40? Not horrible, good for about 5-6 pts in the NQ unless you held it the rest of the day anticipating (heh heh) the collapse at 3:15.... BTW, there were no more 2B top reversals to play to the shortside, as the 14:10 high wasn't a new high, and even if you treated it as such you would have had to hold for over an hour hoping for a collapse. The great majority of today (from about 11:30 - 3:15) was choppy with a very narrow trading range. My point was that the wild, abrupt up and down movements that happened once in the morning and once at the end of the day were tough to game, that's all. Nice swings for me are just that, swings where the movements are more gradual, don't turn so abruptly, etc. Yeah, yeah, all the great rollercoaster riders are heroes at the end of the day.
According to a strategy which I posted long ago, the reversal to trade would be that which took place after the day's target was reached. This occurred when the NQ reached 1001.5, one point away from the target. But "1000" itself can also represent resistance. This, plus reaching the day's target, plus failing to hold, makes the entry a high-probability, low-risk trade. 1050, therefore, was too early in that it hadn't reached the day's target. 1140 did not constitute a reversal since it didn't break the trendline, much less drop below the last reaction low. As for holding something the rest of the day, there was nothing to hold. All one had to do was wait. As for 1410, I didn't say that it was a 2B or anything else. 1401, however, not 1410, was a continuation of the downside move, breaking support at 990.5. And rather than wait for "over an hour", one need have waited only a few minutes if he had placed a stop limit below 990.5. But even if "there were no more 2B top reversals to play to the shortside", one is all you need. Why not take it? If you want real-time discussion, I'll be happy to participate. Just tell me where as long as it isn't ET chat. --Db
First of all, good luck at the new job. That's the most important thing at the moment, and you were right to get your rest rather than play the market on wednesday. I also think having that may keep you from overtrading out of boredom now. And comparing what you are paid with in salary to what you a risking on the market might also get the value of the money in perspective. You exercised such extreme restraint for so long making micro-trades from the cash account. Now I think you've kind of gone to the other extreme. I do think you need to scale your size back a bit now while you adjust to the new freedoms of trading a margin and futures account. I've recommended the SSF as a smaller size alternative to the minis, and I do think that seems like a better approach while your account is at that level (mine's at the exact same level as you right now). I don't want to feel that I'm telling you what to do, so I won't keep suggesting it.
BTW, vorzo, sorry for taking up so much space in your journal. I was just attempting to agree with you. --Db