Hi ER2ers, A quick update on progress since the daily journal stopped at the end of October. In November there was no real change in performance, but I added a new element to the trading plan which has really started to pay dividends. Itâs a 10min chart with a new data feed that runs well across sessions to pick up volatility and which way the pro traders are moving. I also moved up to 2 contracts (based on risk rules) and have enough trading capital to move to 3 contracts once I hit my targets in January. December was my best month to date by a mile. My average winner was 1.2 pt and my average loss 0.2 pts. Iâm getting some great trade entries but still need to work hard on holding the trades through the first pullback to proper exit signals. Iâve bailed out on a few home run trades way too early. My generally my confidence is pretty high. The afternoon session on the 29th December was a good example of the progress I feel Iâm making. Simple chart attached. Only got to trade from midday US time. Jumped into the first trade and went Short when it was still in a clear uptrendâ¦.but managed to realise my error quickly and got out only 0.3 pts down. Second trade was a nice long entry and I waited for the breakout to come. I then got a very clear exit signal from the new feed and I closed for +0.3pt. Pleased that I wasnât emotionally attached to my breakout trade. Then a very clear 10min short signal, entered a bit late, at 684.5. Took 1 contract out after 1pt and the other after 2.4pts. I knew I should hold this trade for as long as I could because it was so strong. But after 2.4pts I just couldnât handle the pullback attempt. The 1pt Profit Target was a scalp setting that should have been changed because it was a 10min swing signal. These are the trades I must hold until I get a 10min exit signal. This signal came the next day 2 hours into the session, 11pts lower. So I seem to be controlling risk better but limiting my reward on great entries by not holding for the exit signal. Another challenge for me is time available for trading but I expect to be able to trade the evening session (1:30 to 4 US) most nights. I donât need to do the journal to help motivate me anymore, because Iâm very clear on what I must do. However, I might do a monthly update on my progress trading the ER2. Good trading for 2006. Cheers J
An update on progress to dateâ¦â¦ Well after my slightly cocky update at the beginning of January - things have struggled through to end Aprilâ¦.but at least this has resulted in me realising I must get on the right side of the market. Bad Stuff since January 1) I really couldnât handle not having a signal for every significant ER2 intraday move 2) I was fixated on every reversal and of course got my fair share of tops & bottoms - but at a cost 3) This led me to change my trading plan on an almost a weekly basis 4) I went from 3min to 5min to 10min to 1min and back to 3min charts as my primary screen (supported by 10min & 60min) 5) I added more signals into the mix â diluting and confusing the real edge 6) This lead to me taking over 50% non-trading signals in March !! 7) My exits were appalling â so many great entries where Iâve taken only on average less than 20% of trade potential based on exit criteria. Good Stuff Out of the crap above has come a bit more clarity to the approach: 1) Iâve finally got the whole trend thing (only really intraday though) after 18 months !! â you read it so many times in ET threads - but the OMG moment happened for me in the last week of April - who wants to be a hero or zero trying to catch the reversals â my stress levels when entering trades with trend are now 100% lower 2) As a result my signals are all continuation plays 3) My exits are now so simple you could explain them to a five-year old, previously they were based on 5 general options 4) Iâm grading my exits very precisely 5) Iâm using key R/S levels with MP, in my trend reading better. 6) Iâm using the NQ as a key confirmation for ER2 signals and trends. 7) I havenât changed my trading plan in May so far !! Cheers J
Jessop, Don't feel bad, seriously. I have a great set up and a great trading plan and I went from up about $50, just starting out, to down $110 because I broke my plan. I went for trading off the 5 min. ER2 to the 50 tick ER2, WTF was I thinking. The 50 tick is not even part of my plan. I deserved to lose more than that. I feel lucky that I did a reality check and cut myself off before things got real ugly. Ugly too me would -200 to -300 by gambling not trading. It is good you know how to read a trend. I know how to trade, I just have alot of challenges with the mental game. I am confident it will come with time. And Jessop with time you will be a $1000 ER2 trader too.
Hi Dan, Nice to hear from you again. I'm positive on the stuff I've learnt the hard way in the last 4 months. The trend is indeed my friend .... no more hoping this reversal is the intraday top or bottom. The strange thing is that my signals mean I can read the NQ even better than the ER2 - but the little intraday Er2 swings blow the NQ out of the water in trend & dollar terms. The one thing I miss about not doing the journal is the banter. Nobody I know trades or even understands what a futures contract is. They either think I'm an out of control gambling junkie or a buy and hold investor. Time for bed.....a nice slump trade from 2pm today .... so I should sleep well. Cheers J
Well it doesn't really get much better than that ....... the path of least resistance .... gotta love this thing. The NQ really helped to show the weakness in the first swing down. Good w/end. J
Got eaten alive trying to catch a bottom, especially after I missed my opening short. Not many days you are positive (just !!) with 5 losers to 2 winners. Exits too early on the last two trades. Learnt a lot .....