Smacking the ER2

No problem ozzy ... feel free mate....any ER2 trades are welcome here.

 

Too late for deletion ozzy. Now you must immediately start your own
Smacking the ER2 thread of your own. With real money...

 

What a strange day … I had the HOD & LOD nailed as entries….but was saved in the end by one trade (S7) …. with very poor rule following.

The fatal flaw in the trading plan bit me in the arse twice (the b/e stop after 1pt in profit). Plus I’m losing a bit of faith in my timing & reading of the 5min charts. What should have been a stonking ER2 day turned into a damp squib morning session….and then saved by one trade.

Had a bit of a crisis of confidence generally in the first 2 hours……found S1, S3 and S5 hard to read on the 5min chart and missed the entries …then looked at the same entries on the 3min chart and decided that they were clearer. So after getting 3 short signals on the way down and 3 on the way up I was 1pt down !!

S1 (S) – signal not taken

S2 (S) – entry at 626.60 – but stopped out for b/e in the very next 5min bar

S3 (S) – signal not taken – messy action and signal not totally clear

S4 (L) – well this signal had it all – bounce off support level, nice candle, & main signal type highlighted and I got in at 624 – yes 624 was mine – then my friggin b/e stop got caught and I was a spectator. I also had a continuation long signal brewing on the 30 min chart to really rub a bucket of salt into the wound….

S5 (L) – the signal formed but I just didn’t read it in time

Non-signal – getting a bit silly now to be honest – jumped in early at 630.5 on the 16:40 5min candle (after 1 min !!) but SHORT – the end of the 16:40 candle was a continuation long signal – but I wasn’t thinking straight and did nothing and got stopped out at 631.5.

S6 (L) – continuation long signal – not taken still in non-signal

S7 (S) – actually taken from 3min charts (in hindsight it just wasn’t a clear signal on the 5min) & higher TFs looking short term o/b – entered at 633.4 held through the first PB – then the selling kicks in. Its tough with 1 contract because you are so tempted to exit when 3pts up – obvious scale out territory. But higher TF charts keep me in trade, until I couldn’t bare it anymore and exited without a signal at 630.4 – exit signal was 10 minutes later.

S8 (L) – another 3min signal – not taken at lunch

S9 (S) – taken from 3&5min charts – entry at 631.8 held through the first test – then it dropped but I exited at 631 without a signal – because it seemed to be struggling to breakdown as expected - exit signal was very shortly after exit. In hindsight not sure how I managed to get 0.8pts out of that thin CT move.

Finished early for the day – the ER2 rollercoaster has me whacked. Looks like S8 has more life left in it. Off to redesign my b/e stops…and work out if its 5 or 3mins.

S1- 0/2
S2- 2/2
S3- 0/2
S4- 2/2
S5- 0/2
S6- 0/2
S7- 0/2 (3min signal not 5min and exit on non-signal)
S8- n/a
S9- 1/2
Rules Hit Rate = 5/16 = 31% - the good news is I can still make points with such a poor hit rate – the bad news is that trading size consistently will not work with 31% of rules followed

Points today +2.8pts (not including comms) ….

Onwards and upwards……….

 

I’ve been looking at the trading plan over the weekend and made a few enhancements:

The first is around the significance of certain signals and where they occur in the bigger picture timeframes. Since I’ve been watching the 120min & 30min charts alongside the 5min chart over the last two weeks, I’ve realised that I’ve been treating all my signals the same way, regardless of whether they also represent a higher TF reversal or continuation moves.

For example, in the last week there were four signals I took on the 5 min chart that were also strong signals on the 30min and sometimes 120m charts:

Day/5m Signal

10/10 S4 5-10pter
11/10 S5 20pter
13/10 S4 10pter
14/10 S4 10pter

So to cut to the chase I will have a new category of Swing signal that I will trade on the 30min & 120 min charts – but using the same signals I have been using as entries.

I will Sim these trades in the interim until I can demonstrate this method has a good expectancy. I will need to setup a separate IB account for these Swing trades. Ninja doesn’t allow sim trades to run over more than one session so I will just keep records of the Swing entries in the interim until live.

The swing trades will have a 1pt initial stop and will only move to b/e when 2pts in profit. The exit signal will be based on 30min/120min chart indicators.

The second enhancement is the ‘bread and butter’ signals coming from the 5 minute chart. On occasions I am holding these trades too long looking for the home run trades. I will move to the 3min TF charts and trade the reversal / continuation signals to the exit signals and not try and “hold through the first pullback” all the time. The aim is to pick up the 1-3 pts on offer several times a day on these mini-swings.

The 3min chart just gives me a little bit more clarity that is missing in the 5minute chart. I accept that I will get more noise as a result but I’m just looking for quick wins now for the mini-swings, so I need to be more agile.

The mini-swing trades will have a 0.8pt initial stop, the stop will move to b/e once 1pt in profit. When I am trading multiple contracts I will take 1 contract out when 1pt in profit.

 

What should have been an excellent reversal day was a case of loads of missed opportunities. Generally very passive today, concentration **** and exits very poor….apart from all that a good day!!

S1 (S) – watched but signal not taken

S2 (L) – could see that S1 was struggling but the move was too quick for me

S3 (S) – signal watched – but for some reason I decided that the ER2 should bounce from the 15:15 bar and I would short that. It ignored my advice and dropped 4pts without a bounce. Looking for the market to give me perfection!!

S4 (L) – after ignoring all the signs with S3 – I jump straight into a ‘falling knife’ long. There was a signal there but given the weakness it was a real CT gamble play. Entered at 634.3 and stopped out 5 mins later for 633.5.

S5 (S) – very clear signal – watched and did nothing

S6 (L) – even more p***ed off after missing S3 & S5 – not taken

S7 (S) – Great entry at 632.8 at the start of the 17:03 bar – thought the move might have got away from me. A panicky exit without a signal though when it hit the LOD – closed at 631.4. The exit signals was at 17:18 when price was around 630.7 level.

S8 (S) – not taken at lunch
S9 (L) – not taken at lunch

S10 (L) – nice continuation long signal – watched and waited for perfection again – not taken!!

S11 (L) – continuation long signal – entered 631 on start of 19:12 bar and exited at 631.5 – no exit signal again – just got out when there was no follow through

S12 (L) – not paying full attention – not taken – an expensive distraction

S13 (L) – continuation long signal – get another chance but not paying full attention – not taken again!!

S14 (L) – ditto S13

S1- 0/2
S2- 0/2
S3- 0/2
S4- 2/2 (this feels generous)
S5- 0/2
S6- 0/2
S7- 1/2 (exit on non-signal)
S8- n/a
S9- n/a
S10- 0/2
S11-1/2
S12-0/2
S13-0/2
S14-0/2

Rules Hit Rate = 4/24 = 17%

Points today +1.1pts (not including comms) ….

Onwards and upwards……….

 

Well a lesson today in taking all your signals (S10 to S13)….if you get selective the market will kick your butt.

S1 (L) – not taken at work
S2 (S) – not taken at work
S3 (L) – not taken at work
S4 (S) – not taken at work
S5 (L) – not taken at work
S6 (S) – not taken at work
S7 (S) – not taken at work
S8 (S) – not taken at work
S9 (L) – talking to builder - not taken

S10 (L) – I was happy with the continuation entry at 629.9 – but it just failed - stopped out for -0.8pts.
S11 (L) – Again I was happy with the entry at 629.7 – but there was no buying and the bar quickly reversed and I was stopped out for -0.8pts again.

S12 (L) – the pain of two failed longs kept me from committing to third – not taken
S13 (S) – ditto S12

S1- n/a
S2- n/a
S3- n/a
S4- n/a
S5- n/a
S6- n/a
S7- n/a
S8- n/a
S9- 0/2
S10-2/2
S11-2/2
S12-0/2
S13-0/2

Rules Hit Rate = 4/10 = 40%

Points today -1.6pts (not including comms) ….

Onwards and upwards……….

 

Jessop your getting some decent signals. You should be making 5+ points. What's going on brother.

Also how is it living/trading in england (i'm thinking of moving to amsterdam and possibly london in a year or two).

Peace
ozzy

 

Ozzy,

Tell me about it

You are right I should be getting 5pts easily. Today was probably a 1-2pter given I was only around for the last few signals (and two of them failed).

Unfortunately I'm the weakest link at the moment and I just need to control my fears, focus better and probably be more aggressive. But I feel I am making progress....very small steps but at least they are forward.

I'm in for the long haul ......

If you come to Europe avoid France and Germany.

If you move to Amsterdam I don't think you'll come to London. The dutch women are real babes - perfect T&A action there ozz.

London is cool too ....but we have a real nanny state government thing going on here.... we're going to be the northern hemisphere's Singapore soon.

Ciao

 

I know where your coming from. It takes some time to build the confidence. But what you got looks good.

I can't wait to move to europe. Ahhhh the fun I will have. Ibizia, prague, amsterdam, barcelona, bodrum. North America pales in comparision (except Vancouver......its pretty sweet here).

later
oz

 

Hey Jessop I came across your thread, I can empathize I too am day trading the russell. First on paper, then on sim and I am having a tough time making money. I commend you for posting so honestly, it is helpful to see that I am not the only one that trades without consistency. I am glad to see you have improved. Best of trading to you.

For me, I have vacillated between simple S and R to a complicated EW software program. Both actually work, but as soon as one doesn't I switch back to the other and back and forth and then nothing works, LOL!

For what it worth, I am a big believer in NLP and after listening to some old tapes I was able to turn $500 losses in BE, and then up $100 with in a couple of days.

A question for you and others, if your trades don't go your way right away do you give them your stop loss and bail? I think I recall you saying you do. Follow up, if the trade goes your way and then comes back to your entry do you bail out at BE or give it the predetermined stop loss to see if it goes your way? I find myself most conflicted with the latter question. There seems to be so much volatility at times in the Russ.

Thanks again for your journal.