Bear Play On Silver ETF By Andrew Wilkinson on December 30, 2009 | More Posts By Andrew Wilkinson | Author's Website SLV - iShares Silver Trust - It looks as though commodity traders have it all to play for in 2010. Raw materials prices had surged especially late in 2009 as they felt the tailwind of a declining dollar. However, an abrupt about-face helped pull the rug and several commodity prices went into a tailspin. The irony here is that itâs a strengthening global economy backed by evidence of rising demand for industrial inputs that has lifted silver and copper prices independently of the hoarding for the precious yellow metal, which grabbed all the headlines recently. Shares in the iShares Silver trust, meant to track the price of an ounce of silver are still holding well above last weekâs $16.64 low, although are down today at $16.83. One investor appears to have extended protection against a fall in the price of silver by selling almost 40,000 January put options and buying the same amount of contracts in the February contract. We donât know whether the investor is already commodity bullish and just aims to protect unnecessary losses in the event of a sudden dollar upturn, or whether this is an outright bet that the commodity rally is overdone. If the latter is the case, the investor will benefit in the event of a 10.8% decline in the price of the ETF. The option market tells us that there is a 16% chance of that happening by expiration in February. ---------------- I think its pretty ballsy to base a prediction on some invester rolling over a trade?