a measly 70-pointer on a AUD/USD long at 4:30 ths afternoon. This is the slowest trading I can remember in weeks. The market has just not been... cooperating. I'm in over 15 pairs and everything's been going sideways this week, to my standards. I can do something in 2-cents moves, but this tight band... what a yawner.
Hey Neuro, "doing goos" is what I usually do. Doing good is what I aspire to do! "Do you have some thoughts to share on time frames and profit targets?" Nothing I can post here without being outside the bounds of this Journal. "how much time do you spend at the desk?" You mean in my cluttered spare room with a cheap chair, my cats pouncing on my keyboard and a trading station that looks like one used in a bank if the bank is in Barnum and Bailey's circus? Every minute the forex is open, except when I sleep. When analyzing the Backspace key on my keyboard is more exciting than looking at my monitors I know the market is in between countries. "Or maybe I should go mechanical?" That's actually a very good question. Without writing a chapter on the subject, my take on mechanical trading is that it is a novel idea. It is probably a concept that is good in theory but knowing what I do about the nature of forex and trading, it is a failure in application. Look at video software games. Though, how many of them will set you in a live situation, like a football game, and allow you to play like you would on a game? None that I know of. You could box Mike Tyson on a game, but trying going live with him using a mechanical software system. He'd bite a chunk of your mouse off. In my mind, same thing goes for forex. No way can a mechanical system do what I can do in a live setting, in that, I need to make onsite determinations and judgments. I need to figure what's bulldroppings and what's not. And I'm not talking about just when I'm on a date. No programming software can equal making proper assessments. I don't care what they say. Successful trading is about advancing, not about thinking you got the Holy Grail. I've had "the Holy Grail" lots of times until the market came along and destroyed it. Plus, there is no way Big Blue can fathom trading rules and principles and I won't ever tell a programmer what I know, so... good luck to anyone who wants to try to invent a trading program that is worth anything. When you are first beginning to trade forex, that is the time it is most imperative for you to know and understand yourself what you are doing. Making notes on what went right or wrong in each trade you're in - nothing can compare to it in order to advance yourself. You know, if a beginner comes to the market and tries only to make winning trades, s/he is not learning all there is to know. You have to make trades (on a demo) but also know what it takes to (and why you) lose. Successfully dealing with just plain losing is critical to becoming an advanced trader. When I first started about 2 years ago, I spent around 6 months a demos. Losing fascinated me more than winning. Consequently I was lucky enough to make some headway into the nature of what causes losses. I probably have a dozen half-read books on trading that address losing that I'd do much better finishing reading. Overall, teaching yourself is imperative. The principles to progress are definitely out there. You just have to study and read and ask questions, not only of others but of yourself and about trading and money, etc., etc. Getting the answers then being able to apply them correctly can mean the difference between making it in forex, and getting killed. I know because I've come close enough to getting killed plenty of times. And on demo accounts I got bagged more times than I can remember: So many margin calls I should have gotten arrested. But... you make breakthroughs. I remember, when I first started, being so frustrated I felt like killing myself (that I've always been suicidal probably didn't help much). I was manic about learning and trading. Then this one guy told me, "You just have to watch the charts, Sam." Well, you know, he's right! When I first started I knew A LOT more about the core extrageneous planet gasses of Mars than I did about trading "pairs" in forex. Trading forex is like flying a plane. You need to put the hours in. You need to test this, and try this, and say, what happens if I do THIS, or this or this or this or this or this.... Testing, testing, testing, testing, testing, testing. Eventually you will advance. At first it's all a fog and a dense forest darkly. When just starting you're going to do bad. Once you get better, you realize, Hey, I DID advance! And since you DID advance, you CAN advance further. But it does take those 100s of hours in the market. Without those, with or without a demo, forget it, you'll go the way of the wind. Sam
Just wanted to post I currently trade ( or sometimes just look for trades ) about 12-14 hours a day. last week a few nights with no sleep. Things were moving..I have a program that makes different noises for different products. So if I hear something moving Ill check it out. EUR Is going nowhere fast. Any of your other currencies moving? made 6 ticks earlier but thats it. So you have 2 years into it? I was in the restaurant buisness for 18 years previous to my trading adventures. So the hours are about the same Xcept I have weekends off Tiil Sun PM anyway. I read on one of these posts somewhere trading is like baseball with pitches coming at you 100 MPH but the more you stand there you learn when to swing. Xcept sometimes I get hit with the ball. I will learn. I will learn. Im a wanna be right now But I have a few months under the belt & a few bucks in the pocket. So for people that read these posts Like I used to. Do your homework stay focused to the buisness. & learn the products you trade first.Good Luck. you will need that too.
Does anyone want a gmail email account? Send me an email and I will send you an "invite" you use to open an email account at Google. Make sure you include your Elite Trader ID in your email to me. sKaLpZ
Nah, I'm still sitting at -60 on my last EUR/USD short. Yesterday it was -59 or something like that. The rest of the pairs are just bumbling along. I had a GBP/USD short that was sitting near 300 points in the black, now it's only 130 points. *shakes head slowly* What was I thinking? Looks like NZD/USD may be starting to get ready to do a little run. Looks like EUR/USD is doing a little pussy "consolidating." The market it calls it a "consolidation" when the pussys show up and don't trade. Typical of a NFP week. 12-14 hours a day, wow! You put those kind of hours in and if you survive you'll progress for sure. Coinz
Thanks! whooops OK, I tried. will look for some of your posts elsewhere, if you ever did post on the subject. Good to hear, on this I may have an edge. And then you get me depressed... but I won't ask you what to watch for. I guess it has to be like it was with learning a foreign language, or sailing, or computer programming: I start and everything looks like a mess then... one day... *click in the head* ... and the progress gets in boost mode. Just takes discipline from then on, it's not that you learn the thing, you learn how *you* learn the thing. Backtesting, backtesting, backtesting, backtesting, backtesting, backtesting... Keep posting neuro
Well........ Not exactly. I never backtested anything because I believe the market is ever-changing, however... For 3 months prior to Sept 2004 I was trading a system that worked wonders. I always won and won big. Then EUR/USD headed one-way 1600-pips. The system didn't work anymore. I almost got killed. The point is, once I gained control again by re-wiring and adapting (one of the things I had learned to do) I figured out what I did wrong and what I could have done right. Ah... now with the new revised system I have, yes, on that I looked back or "backtested" it over the 16-cent climb and the revised system would have gained every pip. And NOT have gotten me in such a precarious situation. That's advancement. But, I would not recommend basing all system tests on backtesting. When I wrote testing, testing, testing... I meant taking your current system/trade set-up and putting it into live trading (albeit on a demo, or live by making ultra-small size trades so you lose less real money) so you can see it perform in the present market environments and future environments. True, a rate price may have fallen or rose 6-cents 10 years ago during a one-month period but the reasons it did may have been very different back then as they are for a similar move today. Therefore if your system uses any of the indicators you would have used back then, the test results may tend to confuse you, potentially damaging you in current trading in a live account. The great system I had that I traded for months in a 6-cent range up and down (that later failed) worked fantastically during the time I was using it pre-1600-tic spike. But, when the current market environment changed and climbed 1600-points vertical, the system collapsed and almost bagged me. But due to being used in daily and current trades I was able to clearly see its holes and why it failed, enabling me to revamp its weakenesses. Of course the system that failed was a progression of previous systems that also worked good but ultimately the market crushed. In my mind, running tests on old data even going back years, and not trading in the here and now with current fundamentals and/or technicals, if you use such things, is not as effective a learning tool. sKaLpZ
When you first started out, how did you come up with "ideas" for a system. Books? Other traders? Thanks
Where backtesting may come in handy. I was sitting at my desk one day in the market about 4PM when an IM box pops up and there is one of my trading buddies. He says, "Hey, Sam! Want to make some easy money?" I think that was close to my primary goal of having been trading forex for the past 36-hours straight so, blurry-eyed, I typed, "YEHAHAAE..." He commenced to tell me to pop open a USD/JPY chart, instructing me to take out a short when the price reached such and such rate. His reasoning was sound. Since (it appeared) USD/JPY always falls back down to where it spiked from. The plan was to close the short on a 30 to 50 point retracement. Sure enough, a quick glance over the preceeding weeks confirmed his trading structure assuring me of getting rich since he was kind enough to point out the ultimate secret of the forex universe. Elated, I wasted no time in opening a short when the price climbed to the level agreed upon - about 50-points up. It actually did fall some as I quickly made a call to the local Chevy dealer inquiring on the cost of a new Corvette "in red, please." "Seventy-five thousand out the door? Great, I should have that by next Wednesday... because... well, because I found the ultimate secret to the for... uh, nevermind, I'll be in." Only one little problem separated me and my new Corvette purchase. The price proceeded to climb 800-points over the next 6 weeks, going from the low 105s to the mid 113.00s. It not only took my first short with it, but subsequent shorts I kept opening and opening all the way up. A few days into the climb he msgs me back and says, "SAM, I GOT A MARGIN CALL." As you can probably guess the news was encouraging. I had to trade for the next 6 weeks under that cloud. About the middle of the trade I located a chart that went back years and saw moves similar to the one I got caught in, even far worse, with the price climbing past the 120.00s. I was ear-marked for a margin call at around 115 if I remember correctly. So, in that case, looking back to past price moves would have blown out the basis for my buddy's whole synopsis. I did get out of the trade narrowly escaping death and you know what? The price tumbled all the way back down PLUS another 100+ points past the entry level we agreed upon. I wasn't in the trade at that point to take advantage of the retracement though. I had bailed when I saw the first glimmer of sunlight up in the 109.00s. Sam