sKaLpZy, I was wondering, do you always think about "where will I put my money, if I exit this trade" BEFORE you make the exit? Or do you sometimes simply reduce your total portfolio exposure with your weightings? Michael B. I opened a long at 1.2872, exchanging it for a position close taking a mere 10 points profit off the table on a previous long. Go figure
I am not sure that is such a good thing.... Anyway, I'm going to try to keep this Journal on course. If... the resident specialists... want to mar it for all the readers than it is up to you. Don't take my non-replies as a snub, I am just going to endeavor to not participate in screwing up the lessons here for new forex traders by replying to a lot of non-topic stuff. I guess on Elite Trader there's no such thing as "serious." Well, I was hoping to provide an easy-to-read place for beginners to go to in order to advance their forex trading. I'll try my best to continue. For the sake of people interested in what I'm teaching or posting here, just consider that there are those who may benefit. If you were one of them you'd probably appreciate reading a Journal on the topic that is not messed up with a lot of errant and stray posts and flames. Try to have some discipline. Other than that, post whatever you want. Nobody seems to care to keep clearly off-topic posts OFF this Journal anyway. whatever Coinz
skalpz, do some pairs trend better than others? do some pairs have more volatility than others? does volatility go crap through summer like equities? what do you think of IB for forex? how many pairs would you say are tradeable(intraday)? thanks, appreciate your efforts. john.
Hi John, "do some pairs trend better than others?" It depends on what you'd call "trending." If overall high/low in a year is your focus then yes definitely. If intraday or even monthy, short range, tigher or wider band then yes there is certainly differences between pairs. AUD/USD is a good example of stronger one-way medium to short range moves. Versus EUR/USD that will typically move back and forth till you're sick of it while generally overall going insane as it may make its way 2-cents one way or the other. "do some pairs have more volatility than others?" It depends on what the cause is. A really off-predicted economic number can cause Hell across the board of pairs. Usually in such a case EUR/USD will expload the most, normally followed by USD/JPY and GBP/USD too, especially if it is a USD eco number. I've seen CHF/JPY go nuts for no apparent reason, though, as EUR/USD just sits there like it's in a prayer meeting. Again, it may depend if you account 30-points back and forth for no reason "volatility" or 200-points one-way because of some stupid news story just to turn around and fade the whole move back to the beginning. How much dumber can you get than that? I tell yah, the best way to trade forex is to just be a little less dumb than the price moves then wait for the rate to catch your smarter trade positioning - trades can be closed in awesome profit like that. "does volatility go crap through summer like equities?" I've only traded live for around one-and-a-half years so I may not be the best one to answer that. On the one hand I don't see how global money could ever really stop or slow in volatility seeings that global business is always pretty much being done. I have been told that volatility used to be much better or more consistent. That these days it generally centers around news stories, that can be pretty frustrating because then you must sit and watch paint dry until the big news story comes out. Take a look at EUR/AUD over the last 24-hour period. Here's a pair that has climbed and climbed and climbed. Out of sinc with other pairs that just bounced up and down. It's a phenomenal trader even though it's skitzo as Norman Bates, "MOTHER, NO! MOTHER!!" As is USD/CAD. A good friend of mine who specializes in that pair claims you cannot find a better trader even though its often absolutely off all indicators. I always seem to be catching the mule's rear end of that pair. There must be better ways to trade it that I don't know about. I think it can really get in your face though, that can be a blast if you're accustomed to avoiding getting killed by powerful swings. Of course, "cable" (GBP/USD) is pure murder. It simply cannot be tampered with unless you're ready to get rich or get bagged because it does not mess around. A contrarian's dream (or nightmare as the case may be) as it can defy global market forces and eco news one moment, just to crumble under seeming nothingness the next. Britain's economy at times appears to be so out of sinc with GBP/USD it is unreal. The pair trades to its own tune most the time I've found. Although, it is not like I track each pip based on Britain's eco news. I don't really pay much attention to news stories in order to gain (or lose) pips. GBP/USD may be heavily speculation-traded, is my guess. It's been my greatest blessing and my worst curse. "what do you think of IB for forex?" I know more about Mars than I do "IB." For all I know, "IB" stands for "Inverted Beaver." I hope it's hairy. "how many pairs would you say are tradeable(intraday)?" A misnomer. Since, in theory, all pair prices are based on global money moving back and forth between currencies, that part of their nature would mean that they are all tradable. Perhaps each in their own time-zone may be slightly more "tradable" than at other times, especially when their respective time-zone overlap. USD/JPY can be a good trader 24 hours a day. Same with the Swiss franc pairs, CHF/JPY, GBP/CHF and USD/CHF. Though you can definitely see different move perspective views on different time charts, i.e. a 5 minute versus a 3 hour. Look at EUR/USD on a 5-minute chart and you may think all Hell is breaking loose. Slam it on a 3-hour and it looks pathetic. thanks, appreciate your efforts. john. No problem, John, thanks for the good questions. It gives me something to do between trades besides check out girlie pics, i.e. IB. Now if only EUR/USD would move back down to 1.2831 and take my 1.2896 short with it. Could you imagine I stop-lossed a E/U long at 1.2866 for a 6-point loss just before it shot to 1.2900?! Talk about trading nervous. I shouldn'tah had that last cup of coffee at 2AM. Either that or it was because my girlfriend called me a "cyberstalker" tonight on the phone. What bugs me is, how did she know? An over-reaction, I guess. Coinz
Would spread have any effect on this? "do some pairs trend better than others?" It depends on what you'd call "trending." If overall high/low in a year is your focus then yes definitely. If intraday or even monthy, short range, tigher or wider band then yes there is certainly differences between pairs. AUD/USD is a good example of stronger one-way medium to short range moves. Versus EUR/USD that will typically move back and forth till you're sick of it while generally overall going insane as it may make its way 2-cents one way or the other. "do some pairs have more volatility than others?"
Since Buffet runs a tiny little company known as Berkshire Hathaway, he has to post quarterly financial statements. Thus he takes his live positions against the USD and enters into his books the profit/loss since last quarter. So q1 was a loss, but and I bet he cares about it too - but his loss is miniscule compared to the vast profit he's made on THIS ONE TRADE ALONE. It's just that this trade started in 2002 and is still on going (from what we know). So, look up what mark-to-market means - that's Trading 101.
Random Thought I been up so long I can hardly type so pls pass over the typos. I wanted to say zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz..... wait where was I ?? Oh yeah... This interest rate. Seems the euro's trying to... zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz... huh?? where I am??? oh yeah, let's see... Since Greenie raised the rate again I think the market WILL head down... it is just doing a delayed reaction. It will most likely work itself down to the low 1.2800s soon. sKaLpZZZZZZzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
Man I got KIlled at NYMEX 3:15 freaked out & closed every thing @ 3:30. 3:45 They announce trade bust. Now Im pissed i closed everything lucky to be ahead. & not in a big hole. Welcome to the PIT. That was BS