I mainly trade futures intraday and have some things that I look at that are very, very consistent -- I have never tried these strategies on anything longer than a day but I'm going to give it a shot. If things work over the long term like they do intraday, we're in for one nasty correction. I am currently short the SPY's and am looking for a large correction to come within the next few months.
ha. a little vague. define large. under 10k? few months? we are coming up on summer a pullback would not be a surprise. i am not disagreeing with you but you are leaving yourself a lot of room to backpedal.
I'm being vague because this is the first time I've tested this strategy on a longer time frame so I have no idea how it will act but lets say I think we'll test the October lows?
The 4-year cycle bottomed out in late-2002. Ideally, it'll do the same this year. Hopefully, there'll be a well-defined bottoming in September or October. That's when the market has had its biggest meltdowns. Start keeping an eye on the far-out-of-the-money index puts in August. We can compare our forecasts and profits at that time.
drukes can you tell me some of the tools you use for trading and how large of a drop do you think we will have ? thx, bgp