SiSePuede's Journal

Discussion in 'Journals' started by SiSePuede!, May 31, 2007.

  1. I decided to start this journal now. It will hopefully help me keep more focus on trading what I should be which are carefully scanned stocks. I usually do well when I do so.

    AXP - I'm bullish and have been buying Calls recently. I own a bunch of July $37.50s which I will unload soon for a nice profit. I own July $65s which I bought yesterday when the stock was in the low $44 range. And I own 80 October $70 Calls which I think can easily double from here before then. This is a good company.

    DRYS - Bought some July $40 Calls yesterday when the stock was up only slightly and unloaded them when the stock moved higher at a hefty profit. Was too reactionary and bought some June $45 calls which make me nuts, but they're profitable nicely and I've sold some of them for a 50% profit so far today.

    GWR - Beautiful chart and it's got a very low PE, it's going much higher. I bought 85 October $35 Calls when the stock was trading just under $32.

    AMZN - I own 30 October $60 Puts. I think they'll grow in value between now and then whether or not the stock goes to $60 or not. I can't imagine they can make it through many more earnings periods without shaving off a quick 10-15%. If they don't I'm out a bit, but not a fortune.

    This is about 10% of my trading capital. The rest is in a few longer term holds I'm accumulating. They're very very small cap investments and I'll post them when I'm done accumulating. One is currently trading at $3.35 and the other is at $3.65. Both are trading slightly under my average prices but I expect to see huge gains in both long term and don't really care.

    I'm busy selling some shares of another long term hold I've had since it was $2 or so and is now $14. The stock is PRXI and I'm moving profits from that into the other two small caps.
  2. Sold 10 of my FRO Calls as the liquidity hit it and the stock started dropping. Locking in profits is good. Bought at $1.70 yesterday, sold at $2.20 today. Still hold 10 more contracts.

    Sold the rest of my June $45 Calls on DRYS. I picked up a measly 7 July $45 Calls on the stock. I think it's going to break higher, but this is less capital committed.

    I forgot in my first post that I own 100 Calls with a strike of $40 in PDE at an avg price of $1.70. Slightly down on it right now, but I'm pretty confident I'll make a hefty profit in that stock as the company is strong and oil is like volatility, it's bound to rear its ugly head at some point between now and then. :D
  3. AMZN implieds are running at 10d stat vols, 41%. Your duration encompasses two reporting periods. Very high probability you earn on this one.
  4. Thanks Atticus. I think so too, I'd consider rolling more into the play if I see a real weakness in the of now I don't and am actually barely watching it.

    One day it will probably roll over and die, but for now it's just an erosion of time eating away at the puts, albeit very slowly. I bought them in case the stock takes a hit sooner than I expect, will add as/when/if it moves lower.
  5. If it breaks $68 I expect to see it move back to $60 in the short term. Right now sitting at support so interesting to see if it continues higher.

  6. If I had any free funds, which I don't due to some restricted stock selling in my account, I wold go short the ultra-thin CMCO. It's had a nice pop, but it's going to deflate and retrace I think.

    Time will tell, near term I'd expect it to give back some of these gains it made on the gap ups.

    Good short at $29.80 in my opinion.

    And just because it's stuck below $30 I'd put a stop at $30.40, but I can't imagine it getting up that high. :D
  7. I think AMZN will win on vol and spot. High probability of a touch of $60 as well as a touch of 50% on October vols. Good job. I've joined you on this one.
  8. It looks like it could be breaking, I think the last two days were a failed attempt to return to previous highs near $73

    I'd also say you can put GOOG in that category as of now. I wouldn't bet against it going higher, either AMZN or GOOG for that matter, but AMZN is clearly the more overvalued and I don't think shorting at this price is too risky.

    My one concern in AMZN has been a buyout. There is too much floppy money floating around, but a deal like that is almost unthinkable just because of how many multiples of actual value Amazon is trading at.

    Cheers :D

    p.s. I think AXP is going to try and breakout into the closing's done it for the past few sessions and chewed through a wall of probably 1M+ shares yesterday at $65. A walk through and a higher closing above $65.15(this morning's opening high) would be a great sign to me. I'm already long a number of different Calls on this stock. It's a great company and they are now allowing people to pay mortgages with their cards, ingenious in my opinion!
  9. I'm short CRM as of today, in addition to my existing short portfolio, which I've built in great detail over the last 9 weeks.

    Possible additional positions: RSH, PCU (waiting for technical damage on chart).

    Good journal idea, SiSePuede.
  10. Good luck. Zero prob that AMZN is taken out.
    #10     May 31, 2007