I am starting this journal as an offshoot of the following thread: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=220184 I am going to make an attempt to provide at least one update daily. This is just a casual journal so the updates are not really a huge priority for me. So forgive me if I miss something along the way.
Right now I believe price is trying to fill the gap on the IWM that exists between the 9th/10th. My guess is that we pull back to fill that gap and pivot either off the 20 day or 50 day moving average. I will acknowledge there is a head and shoulders which might be forming and this is apparent when you look at the daily. However, I believe that to be a remote possibility. At this point, I have closed my long position in the TNA and expecting further weakness for the very short term. Im not going back on my original thesis (just yet) which is the IWM will be at the April highs or near the April highs by the end of this month. I do believe there will be a correction over the summer.
Thanks for the thread on IWM...it's been a long while since we've had one here at ET. I myself watch closely $RUT, IWM and other Russell price actions while trading Emini TF futures. I'm curious why you think there will be a correction over the summer and down to what general price area? Also, it's very common to see a H&S price action that's opposite and within a higher time frame H&S price action. For example, it's not uncommon to see a bullish H&S on a shorter time frame while inside of a bearish H&S of a larger time frame. Does such have impact on your short term or long term perspective? Mark
In looking back at the last 100 years of trading, summer always seems like a weak trading period. If you look at the chart with yearly candles then you tend to see these long tails which reach under last years price. This means that at some point in that trading year price went under last year's price. I feel probability is on my side when I say that price will probably reach the 73 area at some point this year. That would be a 17% correction from the top which would be a fairly typical correction, last year was 19%. I believe we are right now at the end of the business cycle and another recession will probably start in 2012 which will make the market tank. For now, short term, I believe the IWM is at or near the bottom and I feel will rally to new highs. The new highs will probably come towards the end of the month. On June 1st, then the real volatility will begin and I believe the real correction will start.