Sirius Satelite Radio

Discussion in 'Trading' started by TKOtrader, Jul 29, 2003.

  1. What do you guys think about this stock ? ( siri )

    had a nice pop monday and earning announcement is next wednesday.

    its priced very cheap at 1.81

    its only other competetor is ( xmsr ) and is priced at 13.83

    i believe it has a huge upside, its only going to get bigger.
    i'm thinking about buying a huge amount of shares and just holding them for the long term.

    do any of you guys have an opinion on them ?
    do you think buying before earnings is to risky ??

    (i think their earnings are going to be good, but what do i know:D )
  2. what earnings. they lose a huge amount of money. these stocks dont trade off earnings. they trade off subscriber numbers. siri at 1.8 is already valued at a higher mc than xmsr at 13.
  3. rickty


  4. Whether the price is 'cheap' or not is a function of many things (market cap, earnings, a number of ratio's, etc, but it can't be a function of itself. That is....price can't be cheap as a function of a low price. Your talking about ownership here. Siri has 9X or so the amount of outstanding shares as XMSR, so if you want to compare the two atleast multiply siri's price by 9 so your comparing an ownership stake. have to factor in debt, convertible debt and other stuff too...just careful with the logic.

    The correct way to play these two has been the long xmsr short siri pairs trade that a lot of hedge funds were doing for a while.

    Should Siri ralley substantially the first thing you should expect if you were to hold it for more than a trade is for them to dump another convertible bond offering or something similar on you to dilute your possible holdings further because they aren't making it to break even with the $$$ they currently have in the tank.

    Having said all that....probably goes higher...everything else has.

    Might be an options play for true beliver....I know xmsr has leaps not sure about siri, I don't think anyone expects them to last past 04 unless some bigtime financing comes in.