I have been trying to learn everything I can about trading (specifically the /es, /6e, 6/b) in the past two years. Averaging 10-14 hours a day of screen time. Reading countless threads, methods, books, ect. ...(High probability trading, market wizards) ect. Back testing thousands of times looking for a holy grail automated strategy realizing that there is none for every single market condition as far as i know (bull, bear, sideways). Here is my problem. I feel that I need to find an automated strategy that I can back test and prove to myself that it will work long term before I start trading more than one contract at a time. I have a lot of capital that I have been waiting to put to use but can't seem to be consistently profitable yet. I have written probably ten different trading plans with each one having good RR ,clear entry /exits ect. but just can't seem to be constantly profitable. I feel that my brain is scrambled with 20 different methods and don't know which to use, My brain is scrambled with indicators, scaling methods, trailing stop methods and more. I feel I need to unlearn a lot and trade naked or something. I just feel cluttered. Could some please shed some light on my situation if you have been in my shoes. Not asking for a handout just some guidance. I want nothing more than to be able to trade futures for a living. Maybe point me in the direction of a system or method that you think would suit my style. A little about what I feel comfortable with. -Longer term time frames 30 min ,1 hr, 1 day Using 1 day to determine the trend, 1 hr for Monitoring, and 30 min for entries. -2% risk per trade taking in to consideration position size and Average True Range for my stop loss. - I like regular stop losses. targets, or trailing stops, don't like scaling in/out -I like to keep an eye on the Volume profile , s/r levels / trend lines ,9,18 EMA and MACD whether it is above/below zero Like I said , I just lack confidence because I know that no system works in every environment . How do I know the market won't go sideways for the next year and really hurt me if I follow a bull trend strategy with discipline all year?? Any help is greatly appreciated by someone who can give me some direction to something that helped uncluttered their brain and focus on something that works.
It sounds like you are relying on this for your sole income. Am I correct? Regardless, take a look at some things not related to trading: 1. Zen to Done - Leo Babauta 2. The power of less - Leo Babauta 3. Getting things Done - David Allen You can find most of these are ebooks or audiobooks online. I find that they will help clarify and clean the palate of what you've been working on. It'll help you focus on goals/time management etc, and you do it yourself rather quickly using Leo Babauta's approach. Using these techniques also helps reduce stress because it will give you a plan, and a time strategy. So you'll learn to be smarter about the time you spend trading and researching and doing other things in your life. The books above work in areas other than trading obviously - work, business, relationships, etc.
This is not my source of income, I own a business but that is passive income now ...I have 6 years of living expenses set away but would like to put that money to work in the futures market. Always had a strong desire to trade since I was 16. I wake up every morning loving watching the markets and know this is my calling. I have such a strong desire to succeed here and know I will but am trying to get past wasting my time on the clutter. I want to succeed in futures trading and start a charitable trust. This is the biggest goal in my life.
You say you don't know what kind of system you prefer, etc. but here you've pretty much laid out a system here, or at least a suite of tools. There's no magic bullet system where someone can tell you to "buy when the 9 crosses the 18 with MACD trending up and trail the stop at 2pts" - you have to develop it yourself, which is the hard part. I suggest keeping lots and lots of data, recording setups, and examining every failed setup to determine if there's something you missed. The tools you list above should be all you need... You don't, and this is the problem with automated or manually-executed, strictly mechanical ("buy when the MAs cross up, sell when they cross down") trading. From what I know about that stuff, mechanical traders often deploy several different systems that work best in different types of markets, and break even/small losses the rest of the time. Discretionary traders OTOH need to use intuition, develop a 'sense' for the market, get a feel for the instrument(s) they're trading, and use these to anticipate changes in market conditions - or at least adapt quickly once it's clear the conditions have changed - and either modify their strategy, or employ a different strategy suited for the new market environment.
You can try getting in a group like this one where members can help on focus during the trading day. This is free from what I know and the guy who runs it is on et often giving free advice regularly and good advice too. I have nothing to do with him but I have great respect for what he does and the help he gives people. http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=5 http://www.thestrategylab.com/Sitemap.htm
OP, With the trading plans you have developed, are there certain aspects that worked / didn't work, or did you throw out all points of a plan when 'it' wasn't working? Sometimes piecing together different aspects of overall plans can start to make more sense. Are you going for fully automated or are you manually entering? Can't offer any opinions on the automated plans. With manual entry, it's a bit more of a mental meat grinder getting a sense of the market, while fusing that with your entry points. But I think it is important because I think you can know when the markets change quicker. It sounds like you are struggling with trying to survive in all market conditions. If the conditions are not what you like, then stay out. You do not have to just be a buyer or a seller. Staying out when things change is an option. Best of luck.
Read this over and over again: The best way to make a small fortune in the futures market, is to start with a large fortune. You need to realize, in spite of whatever you study, try, do, learn, see here or elsewhere, the most likely path for you (perhaps 99.5%), is that you will lose a good portion of that 6 years of living expenses. The more someone says "go for it" or "live the dream", the more likely that person is a paper trader. Successful, honest, longterm traders will tell you "trading is a profession, just like becomnig a doctor. Expect this to take many years and a lot of money." However unlike a doctor, your chances are still slim.
Thanks for the reply's so far, very kind... I do not want an automated system i just want to make sure that the method I use will be profitable if I follow it with discipline. I would just like clear entry and exit conditions because I find that when I trade with "intuition" that I am jumping around and it isn't consistent. I think what I need to do is ONLY trade trending markets. I have enough strategies to toy with but I guess I need to only trade when the market is trending. That is when I find my best success. Something I ran into recently though. I have been following the EURO (/6e) ... And on the daily It was in a strong downtrend. Right when I decide to use one of my working (back tested) strategies for the short side, it starts chopping sideways the past couple weeks. Now I can't tell if the Euro is about to reverse to the upside or continue to the downside on the daily. hahahaha seems like this happens often when I choose a certain instrument to trade! The sugar futures downtrend has been a good trade for me in the past couple weeks. The trick is figuring out when the trend will cease I guess....
All your posts are half glass full on this board....Why? I'm optimistic but still realistic. I know there is a tuition of learning trading and that is why I am paying that tuition using 1 contract , not 10 ,20 or 30.... If it takes 10 years , so be it. I will succeed no matter what it takes.