I just spent a few hours reading this thread. The amount of high quality information rivals best book I've read on technical analysis. Kudos to those sharing the info, Im in your debt.
So what does this weekly chart look like to you guys? I'm seeing some bullish signs on the daily chart but the weekly still looks like it has a lot to prove. But so far the downtrend backtest is holding after last weeks overshoot. Making progress with daytrading but still trying to get a feel for how one could swing trade this stuff with longer, multi-week hold times. The short from the channel top worked out well, so what's the game plan from here? Is this a cover your shorts zone, or even a get long zone?
http://www.insidestocks.com/momentum.asp bottom of page, when the 150 and 200 get to 30% area you can start looking for a bottom,until then,any running backs carrying the bull football are going to think twice about taking it into the endzone when it's guarded by snipers from the euro unraveling
I do something similar but with the different main ETFs. When Dow, SP, Nasdaq and others are below 100 and 200, stocks are cheap. You meant 30% or 30s% ?
Yeah, I look at stuff like that too. That's part of the reason why I wonder about the market here. Stocks above the 150ma is at the levels of the 2010 market low (though not the 2009 or 2011 lows), and stocks above the 50ma is also approaching previous bottom areas. And we have a possible technical support levels here in the major indices. Just some food for thought. I guess the next technical level should this one fail is the uptrend starting from the 2009 low and going across the low of last year.
rule of thumb is that when they are all below/at 30%,who's left to sell,everyone is already short,adversely when they are all at/above 70% ,who's left to buy
Absolutely! And can we call it a fakeout? That's no question IMO what's happening to the bulls. Great analogy bro! Btw Guys, thanks for the good words! I'm just waiting on a doctor to drag his tail off the golf course, and finally coming to this lovely place to release me to go home. Pheeeew! I'm literally stir crazy after a week! Again, thanks guys!
I agree completely! I referenced cboe put to call volume, but what I monitor is equity only put/call volume, as total put to call volume, and especially index put call volume is often "skewed" unreliable data due to institutional hedging. That being said, equity put to call volume, where the dumb money runs, is a tool I use to aid in spotting reversals, and from what I'm seeing, odds of a reversal are increasing. If I were a bear right now, I'd be ready to get out of the water on a moment's notice, and head for the hills for a while. I was a little stumped too, but like ammo pointed out, the bulls are being faked out by the euro snipers, and that's a VERY logical explanation IMO. I have a nice shopping list ready. Maybe getting out of this prison with iv tubes is good timing.