Simplicity in TA

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by Xspurt, Feb 12, 2011.

  1. dv4632

    dv4632

    Wow... who hit the buy button this morning? :)

    Could this market have the juice to make it to 1500 this month?

    Or do we have the sell in May pullback first, and then make a run at it later this year? Place your bets..... :D
     
    #491     May 1, 2012
  2. dv4632

    dv4632

    How about this? :)

    I would guess that the red channel bosses the white, so if we break and hold above the white channel, then a a run to 1500 and a date with the decade-long purple channel would be likely.
     
    #492     May 1, 2012
  3. Shoulder disrespect, head incoming aka new highs.
     
    #493     May 1, 2012
  4. dv4632

    dv4632

    Red, what do you think about this take on the shoulder?

    Here it looks like a failed breakout with the shoulder still being intact.
     
    #494     May 2, 2012
  5. ammo

    ammo

    there is a larger inverted hns in spy
     
    #495     May 2, 2012
  6. cornix

    cornix

    #496     May 5, 2012
  7. Thanks satchel and apologies for the late response. Yes it's yoohoo still enjoying the game.

    Been overly busy but will get a review done this weekend.
     
    #497     May 6, 2012
  8. You nailed it, market did those pesky breakout failures RedTank likes to talk about. It seems market likes to fake a breakout more than breakingout itself. Fascinating.
     
    #498     May 6, 2012
  9. Dow PA closed the month 14 points away from that update confirming the monthly doji candle.

    This was followed by a perfect reaction on the triple top resistance and shorts easily taken intraday for a potential C top.

    As I said this is close to a rerun and after this next contest it is likely to be ready for the real move. Before we got to the high marked 2D I was looking for the 2 Day cycle to set up for a move down and said it was the best chance since the Oct lows to put in the top.

    It looks like the 2 Day cycle is now handing over to the 3 Day cycle which means everything is amplified and we can see some powerful whips.

    The S&P has a great break point while the Dow has a little more to confirm a break.

    Because of the many conflicts needing to be resolved in this next move it is harder to describe than last time. I was looking for a C top meaning I am overall very bearish but I need to see the weekly upside cycle turn into a bear runner and it is not there yet.

    The Daily is well set up for a bounce up but that is against the 3 day cycle down that I think is the near term boss for this weeks action.

    On the 2hr chart it looks like we have W3 down so a bounce here for W4 followed by W5 would complete this first part allowing the weekly ABC UP energy to gas out and then give us a negative monthly close.

    I like to predict moves but wait for the confirmation in order to take the trade for a good prediction allows the trade to be taken very early to let it run. However with the daily against the 3 day which is against the weekly that is against the monthly this move needs daily updates that I don't have time for.

    SYNOPSIS
    I like that 3 day cycle to take her down but it needs to overcome the daily up and weekly up - that's whippy. I like this C top for a major move down. So this looks like a minor move up if support holds, bigger move down and then I need to see the weekly up fail and the real move down.

    If you don't have the wherewithal to trade a whippy market then C short was the one to hold and if the weekly breaks that high run with it.
     
    #499     May 6, 2012
  10. Looking at London 5hrs before the US open and it is down almost 2%. When the 3D Chart is boss down and the daily is due a bounce today... if that bounce doesn't happen then the daily is swamped by the 3 day cycle.

    If we do get a bounce then I expect that to be counter and the 3 Day will turn it down.

    This is what I was talking about earlier by using a failure to get success when a counter trend either fails as expected after a short run or, if it is up against a very strong cycle, it doesn't even make it out of the starting blocks.

    When this 3 Day cycle down plays out I will be looking to see the set up on the weekly up cycle and it is that failure that will take us into the monthly down.
     
    #500     May 7, 2012