After carrying out my end of day screen from friday, it became clear the was a huge amount of selling in the UK market due to Covid fears. Anyone else spotted this? Is this likely to be a short term blib or a more of a prolonged turning point?
I've been trading stocks for decades, so here's my opinion. Regarding stock volume or price or value or anything, everyone has a different thought on the matter. Volume to me is important for various reasons, and charts play second fiddle to raw data like algos. But a question, why have you chosen TCM.LN to trade? I wouldn't touch this stock with a barge pole. If you're a reasonably new trader, you'll get frustrated with this stock, a disaster waiting to happen because it will most likely chop you up and spit you out.
No one knows the future, but imo it's not an across the board buying market atm, previous bullish buyers are leaning toward selling imo, all ships fall when the tide goes out.
I think what caught my attention was the quick spike up in price on low volume, looks like an anomaly? and would this be considered a low volume test? I.e. is this a test to see if there is any supply? its an idea I have been exploring. Turns out I have actually removed that order the other day to make room for more convincing trades.
You mentioned trade duration of between 2 days to 3 months. I'm not sure of your trading style and what and how you are going to achieve this, but let's say your goal is max profits or biggest bang for your bucks. In general for stocks you're looking for something that will break out, usually from a low base, with pent up demand, explode upward, then you will do what you want, hold for more or exit. NB: the market mood at the time will have a large influence, that is, how is the big picture large market and sector behaving. So, to achieve your goals (a) Choose wisely (b) don't make mistakes. The stock you have chosen is not a good contender imo. Is it near the top of all LSE stocks for potential demand, break out, hot to trot??? I would say no. You have chosen a poor contender, weak volume, wishy washy price action, wrong sector. Go for the creme, dont make mistakes. What does dont make mistakes mean? You are hunting, you want a clean kill, poor choices leads to losing money, losing time, erosion of capital. Low turnover stocks will display all sorts of false signals, know one knows what it will do next.
$212 is approx resistance. At that point we had an immediate failure. This is not what I would wish to see. That's not to say it wont break out, but the historical price action on this stock is too random to warrant it a top stock contender.
"You mentioned trade duration of between 2 days to 3 months. I'm not sure of your trading style and what and how you are going to achieve this..." That is a good point, what I have learnt from attempted to trade in the past is that I either need a higher win / loss ratio or a higher win %. What I found was I would enter a trade with a profit target, or price target in mind, and try and hold it religiously to hit that target, resulting in a poor outcome overall. Whereas I now see this as putting myself under unnecessary pressure and missing the whole point of trading. For example as I am studying volume at the minute you could say my strategy is not to far from a typical breakout style. Once I have a short list to look at I am then dividing up between risk and opportunity, but more predominately is there an opportunity? (I agree on TCM, its not a great example of an opportunity, just an interesting one). Once that trade is open this then for me this becomes managing the risk and trading the price I see at any given time, the idea is that I am trying to using volume to help me stay in a trade as well as find an exit, and I know from past experience setting my self a target before I have even opened the trade I am limiting any future gains. what I think really need to knuckle down with, is the quality of the volume I am looking at, maybe I need to adjust my parameters to only screen stocks showing a minimum average amount traded per day? not sure, its something I am still working on lol
Thoughts on LSE: MCRO? Since the start of march we have declining volume from left to right, with very tight price action. Is this supply drying up as a result of accumulation? if not answers on a postcard please.
I should have trusted my instinct here, just had a quick look at LSE: MCRO and it has burst out of the gates and I didn't put an order in Although not on the volume you would expect on a breakout, does this mean it didn't take much buying to move it up to a new price level? I have also updated the blog, more content on there. locking in a few gains, 1 loss and some weird price action from LSE: UDG.