Simple System for Beginners

Anyone have backtesting for recent history? If I remember correctly, this system did well up until about 2002, when it fell on its face due to the decreased volatility.

You're trying to catch the afternoon move, which is often very small. If you backtest this and adjust for a tick's worth of slippage each way, you'll likely find it not worth your time in the current market.

Then again perhaps I had some flaws in my script......

 

Don't let them get to you.

I strategy trade (automated) a version of this system with slight modifications and it accounts for a very high percentage of profits. The profit factor is extremely robust.

Here was todays trade. Good luck with it.

 

You mean like this?

Long=(1.0033*RTHopen)+2
Short=(0.9967*RTHopen)-2

Michael B.

 

Is that the 13:15 cst open you are using? I guess you won't share the other tweaks right?

Michael B.

 

You want to buy two two points below the long signal and two points above the short signal.

Of course two points is anarbitrary number. Back testing might reveral it to be one point or three.

The premise is that 90% of the time the market will trade back into the range area for a test of support before continuing in the direction of the breakout. You may however miss is few of the screaming trades that breakout and keep on going.

Runnigbear

 

I have tested a version of this system this evening on the 10 year note (ZN) and the results were very good. I used the same percentages for entry but entered much earlier in the session.

The only problem is I got my ZN data on the cheap and don't feel very confident in its accuracy. If someone has intraday ZN data and is willing to help verify the trades generated from my testing, I would greatly appreciate it.

If someone has intraday ZN data and does not want to help me verify my trades, could you please tell me where you got your ZN data.

Thanks
fan27

 

Just to be clear, thats entering a limit order only after the market has traded outside your range, not before.

Runningbear

 

The premise is that 90% of the time the market will trade back into the range area for a test of support before continuing in the direction of the breakout.


This 90% number is a strong statement, is this instrument dependent? Can this range area be considered where the most number of trades occur, and be more dynamic, sort of like a "value area"?

Michael B.

 

There he goes again...Making it complicated...

Wifey....

 

A simple system for beginners to make money? Oh please, dont say it is so! The Holiest of all Grails exists?

Let me know when you are done. I'll fade it.